Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Nov 14 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low. Region 2752 (S23E56) was assigned, remained inactive, and decayed to an area of enhanced plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 14-16 Nov.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal levels 14-16 Nov, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected a background solar wind regime. Total field strength decreased from 8 nT to 4 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated between +/- 5 nT. Solar wind speed averaged near 350 km/s and the phi angle was primarily in a negative sector.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to remain at near background levels on 14-15 Nov. Possible weak enhancements are likely by 16 Nov as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet 14-15 Nov. Unsettled to active conditions are expected beginning on 16 Nov as the aforementioned CH HSS begins to influence the near-Earth environment.
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