Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Dec 02 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remained spotless and no Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 02-04 Dec.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to persist at normal to moderate levels on 02-03 Dec, with moderate to high levels likely on 04 Dec, in response to coronal hole influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected nominal conditions under an ambient solar wind regime. Total field readings ranged from 2-5 nT while the Bz component weakly varied between +/-3 nT. Winds speeds averaged about 350 km/s. The phi angle began the period in a negative sector, but became variable between negative and positive sectors after about 01/2000 UTC.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to remain nominal on 02 Dec. A minor enhancement is anticipated on 03 Dec as a polar-connected, negative polarity coronal hole becomes geoeffective. Enhancements are expected to persist through early 04 Dec, but are expected to approach background levels by the end of the day.
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 02 Dec. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on 03-04 Dec due to influence from the aforementioned coronal hole.
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