Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Jan 14 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 14-16 Jan.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… Both the greater than 2 MeV electron flux and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux were below event thresholds throughout the period.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 14-16 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over the next three days.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at background levels. Solar wind speed was between 350 – 400 km/s early in the period, then settled below 350 km/s by the end of the day. Total field was less than 5 nT, and Bz underwent no significant southward deviations. Phi angle was oriented in a negative solar sector until about 1400 UTC, then flipped to a positive orientation.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced on 14 Jan with the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Enhancements are expected to continue through 16 Jan.
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is likely to reach unsettled to active levels on 14 Jan due to the anticipated onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Active conditions are likely again on 15 Jan under continued influence from the CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 16 Jan.
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