Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Feb 14 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Very low solar activity continued and the visible disk was spotless. A small filament disappeared from the solar disk near S40E04 between 13/0000 and 13/1400 UTC. No LASCO coronagraph imagery is available after 13/0700 UTC, due to routine tracking gaps, so a determination for a possible Earth directed CME is not possible at this time. More analysis will be completed when imagery becomes available. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low 14-16 Feb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate 14-16 Feb and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were indicative of a return to a slow solar wind pattern. Total IMF strength weakened as it decreased from 5 nT to end of period values of 2 to 4 nT. The Bz component underwent only weak deviations. Solar wind speed decreased to ~350 km/s. The phi angle was variable.
.Forecast… A slow background solar wind pattern is anticipated to continue 14-16 Feb.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet 14-16 Feb.
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