Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Feb 15 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Very low solar activity is expected to continue on 15-17 Feb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to to continue at normal to moderate levels on 15-17 Feb and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels over the period with solar wind speed ranging from 325-359 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-4 nT while the Bz component was between +2/-3 nT. Phi angle was variable until 14/0431 UTC when it settled into a positive sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be nominal on 15-16 Feb. By 17 Feb, a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective causing weak enhancements in total field and speed.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 15-16 Feb. By mid to late on 17 Feb, a CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective causing unsettled periods with a chance for isolated active levels.
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