Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Feb 15 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Very low solar activity is expected to continue on 15-17 Feb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to to continue at normal to moderate levels on 15-17 Feb and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels over the period with solar wind speed ranging from 310-360 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-4 nT. Phi angle was negative between 14/2220-15/0810 UTC and positive for the remainder of the period.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be nominal on 15-16 Feb. A negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective on 17 Feb, slightly enhancing total field and solar wind speeds.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 15-16 Feb. A CH HSS is anticipated on 17 Feb which is likely to cause unsettled periods, with isolated active conditions possible.
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