3 Day Geomagnetic Forecast

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2017 Feb 20 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 20-Feb 22 2017 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 20-Feb 22 2017
Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb 22 00-03UT 1 3 3 03-06UT 3 3 2 06-09UT 2 2 2 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 3 3 2 15-18UT 3 3 2 18-21UT 2 3 4 21-00UT 3 2 4
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 20-Feb 22 2017
Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb 22 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 20-Feb 22 2017
Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb 22 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *