Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Feb 29 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained at very low levels with a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 29 Feb and 01-02 Mar.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate to high levels with a maximum flux of 1,195 pfu observed at 28/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected reach moderate to high levels on 29 Feb and 01-02 Mar due to HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters remained near background levels through about 28/0630 UTC when an overall increase in wind parameters was observed. Solar wind speeds gradually increased from about 325 km/s to maximum speeds near 470 km/s. A steady total field at about 3-4 nT increased to a maximum of 8 nT while the Bz component indicated variability between -5 nT to +7 nT. Phi was mostly in a negative sector through 28/0630 UTC before rotating to a more positive orientation until 28/1830 UTC.
.Forecast… Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected 29 Feb through 02 Mar as an equatorial, negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 29 Mar with unsettled to isolated active levels likely on 01-2 Mar. This increase in activity is due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.
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