Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Feb 29 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained at very low levels with a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 29 Feb and 01-02 Mar.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate to high levels with a maximum flux of 1,195 pfu observed at 28/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected reach moderate to high levels on 29 Feb and 01-02 Mar due to HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… The near-earth solar wind environment became slightly enhanced this period due to solar sector variability. Solar wind speed values reached slowly increased from initial values around 350 km/s to a peak of 500 km/s at around 29/0300 UTC. Solar wind density remained slightly elevated throughout the period, but remained below 10 particles per cubic cm. Late in the period, at around 29/1100 UTC, IMF total field strength values increased to around 9 nT and Bz increased to around -7 nT.
.Forecast… Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected 29 Feb through 02 Mar as an equatorial, negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 29 Mar with unsettled to isolated active levels likely on 01-02 Mar. This increase in activity is due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.
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