Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Feb 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 787 km/s at 29/0641Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 29/1526Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 29/1141Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 684 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Mar, 02 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Feb 070 Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 29 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Feb 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 011/012-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/15 Minor Storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 35/35/20
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