3 Day Geomagnetic Forecast

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2017 Feb 21 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 21-Feb 23 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 21-Feb 23 2017
Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb 23 00-03UT 2 3 5 (G1) 03-06UT 2 3 4 06-09UT 1 2 3 09-12UT 0 2 3 12-15UT 2 3 3 15-18UT 2 3 3 18-21UT 3 4 3 21-00UT 3 4 4
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on day three (23 Feb) due to CH HSS effects.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 21-Feb 23 2017
Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb 23 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 21-Feb 23 2017
Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb 23 R1-R2 5% 5% 5% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

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