Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Apr 04 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2759 (N27E05, Cao/beta) developed trailer spots and produced multiple B-class events during the period, including a B4 flare at 04/0052 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flaring on 04-06 Apr.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,140 pfu at 03/1655 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 04 Apr and moderate levels on 05-06 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected mostly nominal conditions. Solar wind speed fluctuated between ~425-460 km/s. Total magnetic field strength did not exceed 7 nT and the Bz component dropped as low as -7 nT. Phi angle was primarily oriented in a negative solar sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be at near nominal levels on 04 and 06 Apr. A weak enhancement from a positive polarity CH HSS is likely on 05 Apr.
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels until 03/2359 UTC, when an isolated active period was observed.
.Forecast… Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 04-05 Apr with generally quiet conditions expected on 06 Apr.
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