Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Jun 02 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2764 (N35E47, Axx/alpha) was assigned, but the magnetic field was weak with minimal shear and the region was inactive.
A weak B1 X-ray flux enhancement was observed along the SE limb at 01/1644 UTC. This activity appeared to be associated with an active region in the southern solar hemisphere, but beyond the limb as observed in STEREO-A EUVI imagery. This region appeared to be one day or more from rotating into Earth-view. The activity was related to a surge from the SE limb as observed in GOES-16 SUVI 304A imagery between about 01/1617-1757 UTC. Some material appeared to eject into space, while most was reabsorbed. SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph imagery first captured an E-limb CME at 01/1648 UTC. No evidence suggests an Earth-directed component to this E-limb event CME.
.Forecast… Very low solar activity is expected to continue 02-04 Jun, with a slight chance for C-class flares from magnetically weakening RGN 2764 on 02 Jun. The active region observed in STEREO-A EUVI a day or more beyond the SE limb cannot be analyzed further until solar instruments on the Earth-facing side can be utilized.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at primarily normal levels, with a few brief moderate periods 02-04 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were generally minimal and indicative of a slow regime, however, later in the reporting period, the IMF became slightly enhanced and disturbed. This appeared to be associated with SSBC shifts and proximity. Total IMF strength ranged primarily from 3 to 7 nT and the Bz component was weak until after 01/1700 UTC, when it shifted more southward directed. Solar wind speed decreased from 400 km/s to end of period speeds at ~375 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative, but underwent positive sector shifts beginning about 01/1700 UTC.
.Forecast… Solar wind conditions are anticipated to be nominal, with brief disturbed periods due to SSBC proximity possible 02-04 Jun as an overall slow solar wind regime is expected to continue.
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet, with a late unsettled period.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet, with a chance for isolated unsettled to active periods 02 Jun in response to SSBC related disturbances. Quiet to unsettled conditions expected for 03-04 Jun.
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