Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Aug 01 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Slight decay was observed in Region 2768 (N26E21, Axx/alpha). New flux emergence began appearing around 01/0630 UTC from an unnumbered region near N26E75.
An eruptive prominence was observed off the SE limb beginning at 31/1010 UTC in SDO/AIA 171 imagery. An associated CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 31/1724 UTC. Another smaller CME was observed beginning at 31/2336 off the west limb which was likely associated with a small filament eruption at 31/2243 UTC in SDO/AIA 193 imagery near Region 2767 (S21W66, Hax/alpha).
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for 01 – 03 Aug.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron and 10 MeV proton fluxes are expected to remain below event threshold on 01 – 03 Aug.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed ranging from 329-381 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-5 nT while the Bz component was between +/-3 nT. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in a positive (away) solar sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on 01 Aug with persistent effects continuing through 03 Aug due to the anticipated onset of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 01 Aug with unsettled periods possible late with the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 02 Aug with quiet to unsettled levels continuing through 03 Aug as effects persist.
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