Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (06 Aug) and expected to be very low on days two and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 618 km/s at 04/2202Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2815 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (06 Aug, 07 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Aug 073 Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 073/073/073 90 Day Mean 05 Aug 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 005/005-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 10/10/20
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