Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Sep 15 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low and no sunspots were present on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Very low solar activity is expected 15-17 Sep.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 15-17 Sep; while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were indicative of a mildly enhanced state, likely due to weak influences of the north polar CH HSS. Total IMF strength ranged primarily from 5 to 9 nT and the Bz component shifted mainly southward after 14/2000 UTC. Solar wind speed varied from 350-430 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly positive.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are anticipated to slowly weaken as any CH HSS influences wane 15-17 Sep.
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled in response to the slightly enhanced and disturbed solar wind state.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 15 Sep and become primarily quiet 16-17 Sep.
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