Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep, 19 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 15/2143Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 144 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep, 19 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Sep 070 Predicted 17 Sep-19 Sep 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 16 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/05 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/15/15 Major-severe storm 20/10/05
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