Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Sep 22 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low with numerous B-class x-ray events observed. The visible solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 22-24 Sep.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels on 22-24 Sep.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions. Total magnetic field strength was mostly 5 to 9 nT. The Bz component generally varied between +3 to -5 nT and solar wind speeds meandered between about 270-325 km/s. Phi angle was predominately negative throughout the period.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to persist at mostly background levels until the anticipated arrival of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS on day two (23 Sep) and into day three (24 Sep).
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (22 Sep). Days two and three (23-24 Sep) are expected to be primarily quiet to unsettled, with a likely active period late on 24 Sep, due to the arrival of the aforementioned CH HSS.
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