Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Oct 16 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2776 (S14E47, Cao/beta) was stable and produced isolated B-class flare activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels over 16-18 Oct.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 16-18 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected nominal conditions. Total field strength ranged between 2-7 nT, Bz ranged between +7/-4 nT, and solar wind speed increased from initial values near 250 km/s to around 300 km/s. Solar wind density became elevated after 15/1500 UTC and phi was mostly negative.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at nominal levels over 16-18 Oct.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet over 16-18 Oct.
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