Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 16/1511Z from Region 2774 (S24, L=313). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 332 km/s at 16/1159Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 16/0616Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/1940Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 196 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Oct 075 Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 075/075/073 90 Day Mean 16 Oct 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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