Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Oct 17 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity reached low levels today as both a C1 and C3 flare were observed at 16/1257 UTC and 16/1511 UTC off the SE limb in the vicinity of Region 2774 (S24, L=313). Associated CMEs were observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 16/1325 UTC and 16/1603 UTC, respectively. Due to their location just beyond the SW limb, they are not expected to have a geoeffective component.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flare activity on 17-19 Oct.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 17-19 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speeds ranging from 286-332 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-7 nT while the Bz component was between +6/-4 nT. Phi angle was variable.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at nominal levels over 17-19 Oct.
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 17-19 Oct.
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