Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Oct 18 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels with only B-class activity observed during the period. Region 2775 (S23, L=277) remained an area of plage as it approached the SW limb. Region 2776 (S13E28, Cao/beta) indicated some minor development in its trailer spots, but otherwise remained quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flare activity on 18-20 Oct.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 18-20 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total field measurements briefly reached 9 nT midday on 17 Oct, but generally was at 5 nT or below. The Bz component varied between +6 to -5 nT and solar wind speeds were steady near 300-325 km/s. Phi angle began the period in a positive orientation through 17/0300 UTC, but rotated to a predominately negative orientation for the remainder of the period.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at nominal levels over 18-20 Oct.
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 18-20 Oct. Isolated unsettled periods are possible late on 20 Oct due to influence from an isolated negative polarity CH.
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