NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Oct 25 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 25-Oct 27 2020 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 25-Oct 27 2020
Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27 00-03UT 3 3 4 03-06UT 2 4 3 06-09UT 3 3 3 09-12UT 3 4 3 12-15UT 2 3 2 15-18UT 3 3 2 18-21UT 3 5 (G1) 3 21-00UT 3 3 3
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 26 Oct due to CH HSS activity.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 25-Oct 27 2020
Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 25-Oct 27 2020
Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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