Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Nov 20 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity continued at very low levels. Region 2783 (S22E33, Hsx/alpha) continued to rotate onto the visible disk, but remained stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over 20-22 Nov.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate over 20-22 Nov and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters continued to reflect a mostly background solar wind regime, but became slightly enhanced late in the period. Solar wind speed reached a peak near 400 km/s, total field reached a peak of 9 nT, and the maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT. Phi angle remained in a mostly positive orientation with brief excursions into a negative solar sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to persist near background levels on 20 Nov. Enhancements in the solar wind environment are likely with the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS on 21 Nov. Solar wind speeds near 500 km/s are likely, with enhancements in the magnetic field possible. Conditions should remain elevated through 22 Nov as CH HHS influence persists.
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on 20 Nov, quiet to unsettled levels on 21 Nov, and quiet to active levels on 22 Nov as the positive polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.
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