Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 20/1845Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 398 km/s at 20/0836Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 19/2213Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 20/0104Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 178 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Nov) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Nov 082 Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 082/082/085 90 Day Mean 20 Nov 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 007/008-014/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/40/30 Minor Storm 05/20/15 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/15 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 30/55/45
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