Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Nov 21 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was low. Region 2783 (S24E22, Hsx/alpha) produced a C1/1f flare at 20/1703 UTC followed by a C1 flare at 20/1845 UTC from unnumbered regions beyond the SE limb. STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery shows two areas of activity in the corona around the SE limb. These new regions are approximately 2-3 days from rotating onto the visible disk. An new area of bi-polar spots emerged during the period near N24E28. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flares due to potential flare activity from Region 2783 or active source regions just beyond the SE limb.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 21-22 Nov. High levels are likely on 23 Nov due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels all three days.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters became slightly enhance early in the day with periods of prolonged southward Bz. Total field ranged from 1-7 nT while the Bz component reached a maximum of -6 nT. Solar wind speed ranged from 320-384 km/s. Phi angle was variable through the period.
.Forecast… Late on 21 Nov to early on 22 Nov, a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective. Recurrence data suggests solar wind speeds ranging from 500-600 km/s with this feature. HSS effects are expected to last through 23 Nov.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast… A CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective late on 21 Nov to early on 22 Nov. Unsettled levels are possible late on 21 Nov with unsettled to active levels expected on 22-23 Nov.
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