Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Nov 22 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2783 (S23E15, Hsx/alpha) produced a B4/Sf flare at 21/0557 UTC. Other B-class flare activity was observed from new regions due to rotate on the SE limb in 1-2 days. New flux emergence was observed in the NE quadrant and was numbered as Region 2784 (N33E28, Cro/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flares on 22-24 Nov due to potential flare activity from Region 2783 or active source regions just beyond the SE limb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 22 Nov. High levels are likely on 23-24 Nov due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels all three days.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters indicated the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. After 21/1430 UTC, total field increased to 11 nT while the Bz component ranged from +8/-9 nT. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 365 km/s to ~540 km/s by the end of the period. Phi angle was mostly oriented in a positive (away) solar sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to increase to the 500-600 km/s range over the next few days as HSS effects persist through 24 Nov.
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to active due to the onset of CH HSS influence.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 22-23 Nov followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 24 Nov as CH HSS activity continues.
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