Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Jul, 15 Jul, 16 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 500 km/s at 13/0656Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/2349Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/2349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 117 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Jul 073 Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 13 Jul 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 006/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 15/20/20
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