Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 12 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan, 15 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 488 km/s at 12/0305Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/2334Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 154 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan, 15 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Jan 073 Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 073/073/074 90 Day Mean 12 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 010/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 006/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 15/15/15
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