NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Jan 13 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 13-Jan 15 2021 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 13-Jan 15 2021
Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 00-03UT 2 1 2 03-06UT 2 1 1 06-09UT 1 2 1 09-12UT 1 2 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 1 2 2 21-00UT 2 1 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 13-Jan 15 2021
Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 13-Jan 15 2021
Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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