Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Jan 13 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 13-15 Jan.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 13-15 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced, but waning, as influence from the combined effects of the transient and the positive polarity CH HSS began to taper off. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 488 km/s, total field strength reached 7 nT, and Bz observed a maximum southward deflection to -5 nT. Phi remained in a mostly positive sector for most of the period.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced early on 13 Jan as effects from the positive polarity CH HSS persist, but wane. Nominal conditions are expected to return on 14-15 Jan.
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field began the period at active levels following the arrival of the slow moving transient from 6 Jan. Subsequently, conditions remained enhanced, likely associated with the onset of the positive polarity CH HSS. By midday, conditions returned to mostly quiet levels as the combined effects began to taper off.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 13-15 Jan as CH HSS effects diminish.
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