Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Jan 13 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 13-15 Jan.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 13-15 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced, but waning, as influence from the combined effects of the transient and the positive polarity CH HSS began to taper off. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 488 km/s, total field strength reached 7 nT, and Bz observed a maximum southward deflection to -5 nT. Phi remained in a mostly positive sector for most of the period.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced early on 13 Jan as effects from the positive polarity CH HSS persist, but wane. Nominal conditions are expected to return on 14-15 Jan.
.24 hr Summary… The IMF was largely undisturbed and near background levels. Total magnetic field strength peaked at 7 nT. The Bz component was mostly oriented northward and had no significant southward deviations. Wind speeds, which were mildly elevated due to lingering CH HSS effects, trended downwards to near 420 km/s throughout the day. The phi angle was positive.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 13-15 Jan as CH HSS effects diminish.
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