Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 13/0405Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 13/1051Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 168 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Jan 073 Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 073/074/075 90 Day Mean 13 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 15/15/15
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