Auroral Power

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Aug 04 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA217 UGEOA 20401 00804 0330/ 9930/ 10041 20042 30043 99999 UGEOE 20401 00804 0330/ 03/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 00804 0330/ 03/// 10023 20730 3016/ 4///0 50000 64008 74604 80103 90070 99999 UGEOR 20401 00804 0330/ 03/24 04102 12769 20000 30000 41001 50010 60002 14127 00000 12770 20000 30000 47201 50060 60001 17221 00000 99999

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:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Aug 04 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 217 Issued at 0245Z on 04 Aug 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 03 Aug A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 073 SSN 023 Afr/Ap 015/017 X-ray Background A3.9 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 1.7e+05 GT 10 MeV 4.6e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 2.30e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 4 3 3 4 2 3 3 3 Planetary 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 F. Comments: None
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:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Aug 04 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 217 Issued at 0030Z on 04 Aug 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 03 Aug I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 03/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2769 N27E41 058 0010 Axx 02 02 Alpha 2770 N21E72 025 0060 Hsx 01 01 Alpha IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 03/2400Z Aug Nmbr Location Lo 2768 N26W14 113 II. Regions Due to Return 04 Aug to 06 Aug Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Aug 04 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 04-Aug 06 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 04-Aug 06 2020
Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06 00-03UT 4 3 2 03-06UT 3 2 1 06-09UT 2 2 2 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 3 2 1 21-00UT 3 2 1
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 04-Aug 06 2020
Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 04-Aug 06 2020
Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Aug 04 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels. Low level B-class flaring was observed from newly numbered Region 2770 (N21E7, Hsx/alpha). Region 2769 (N27E41, Axx/alpha) was stable and quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for 04-06 Aug.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… There is a chance for the greater than 2 MeV electron flux to reach high levels on 04-06 Aug due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were under the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 500 km/s to a peak of 722 km/s. Total field ranged from 4-10 nT while the Bz component was between +/- 8 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a positive (away) solar sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced on 04-05 Aug as positive polarity CH HSS effects persist. A gradual return to an ambient-like, background environment is anticipated for 06 Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS effects.
.Forecast… Mostly unsettled conditions, with a chance for isolated active periods, are anticipated for 04-05 Aug as CH HSS influence persists. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail 06 Aug.
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Aug, 05 Aug, 06 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 722 km/s at 03/1612Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 02/2203Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 03/0208Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 169 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Aug, 05 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (06 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Aug 073 Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 03 Aug 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 009/010-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 30/25/10
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Aug 03 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels. Low level B-class flaring was observed from newly numbered Region 2770 (N22E81, Axx/alpha). Region 2769 (N27E48, Axx/alpha) was stable and quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for 03-05 Aug.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… There is a chance for the greater than 2 MeV electron flux to reach high levels on 03-05 Aug due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters continued under the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 370 km/s to near 650 km/s. Total field ranged from 3-12 nT while the Bz component was between +8/-10 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a positive (away) solar sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced on 03-05 Aug as positive polarity CH HSS effects persist.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS effects.
.Forecast… Unsettled to active with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels is forecast for the rest of the UTC day on 03 Aug. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 04-05 Aug as HSS effects persist.
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Aug 03 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 03-Aug 05 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 03-Aug 05 2020
Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug 05 00-03UT 4 3 3 03-06UT 3 3 2 06-09UT 3 2 2 09-12UT 3 2 2 12-15UT 2 2 1 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 03 Aug due to persistent CH HSS effects.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 03-Aug 05 2020
Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug 05 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 03-Aug 05 2020
Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug 05 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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The latest version of “The Weekly” Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data is now posted on-line and available at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/weekly-highlights-and-27-day-forecast
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Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #20-31 2020 August 2 at 9:45 p.m. MDT (2020 August 3 0345 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For July 27-August 2
No space weather storms were observed.
Outlook For August 3-9
There is a chance for G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 03 Aug due to recurrent coronal hole high speed stream effects.
Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More information is available at SWPC’s Web site swpc.noaa.gov
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