Auroral Power

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Oct 24 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2776 (S14W63, Hsx/alpha) was stable and quiet throughout the period.
A filament eruption, observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery, occurred at 23/1302 UTC in the NE quadrant near N37E60. Initial analysis, using limited coronagraph data, indicated there was no Earth-directed component. Further analysis is ongoing as more coronagraph data becomes available.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels over 24-26 Oct.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 24-26 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were enhanced throughout the period. Solar wind speeds increased from around 400 km/s to near 575 km/s, total field reached 15 nT and Bz briefly reached -11 nT. Density values peaked at around 37 units and phi was predominately positive after 23/1700 UTC.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced over 24-26 Oct due to the influence of multiple positive polarity CH HSSs.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to active due to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on 24-26 Oct, with G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely on 24 Oct and again on 26 Oct, due to the influence of multiple positive polarity CH HSSs.
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:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Oct 24 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA298 UGEOA 20401 01024 0330/ 9930/ 10241 22241 30241 99999 UGEOE 20401 01024 0330/ 23/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 01024 0330/ 23/// 10011 20720 3012/ 4///0 50000 62008 74504 80001 90060 99999 UGEOR 20401 01024 0330/ 23/24 24101 12776 20000 30000 47201 50060 60001 35714 00000 99999

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:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Oct 24 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 298 Issued at 0245Z on 24 Oct 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 23 Oct A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 072 SSN 011 Afr/Ap 010/012 X-ray Background A2.0 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 8.6e+05 GT 10 MeV 4.5e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 1.00e+07 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 2 1 1 0 1 2 4 4 Planetary 1 1 0 0 1 2 5 4 F. Comments: None.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Oct 24 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2776 (S14W57, Hsx/alpha) was stable and quiet throughout the period. An area of emerging flux and rudimentary sunspots was observed near N30E20, but this area will remain unnumbered unless further development occurs.
A filament eruption, observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery, occurred at 23/1302 UTC in the NE quadrant near N37E60. Further analysis of a likely CME will occur as imagery becomes available.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels over 24-26 Oct.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 24-26 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at background levels through the first half of the period, but became enhanced after 23/1200 UTC. After 1200 UTC, solar wind speeds increased from around 400 km/s to around 525 km/s, total field reached 15 nT, and Bz briefly reached -10 nT. Density values peaked at around 37 units and phi was variable throughout the period.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced over 24-26 Oct due to the influence of multiple positive polarity CH HSSs.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to active due to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on 24-26 Oct, with G1 (Minor) storm conditions expected on 24 Oct and likely on 26 Oct, due to the influence of multiple positive polarity CH HSSs.
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:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Oct 24 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 298 Issued at 0030Z on 24 Oct 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 23 Oct I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 23/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2776 S14W57 167 0060 Hsx 01 01 Alpha IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 23/2400Z Oct Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 24 Oct to 26 Oct Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Oct 24 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 24-Oct 26 2020 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 24-Oct 26 2020
Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26 00-03UT 4 3 3 03-06UT 5 (G1) 4 4 06-09UT 4 3 5 (G1) 09-12UT 3 3 4 12-15UT 3 2 3 15-18UT 3 3 3 18-21UT 3 3 3 21-00UT 3 3 3
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected on 24 Oct and likely on 26 Oct due to CH HSS activity.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 24-Oct 26 2020
Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 24-Oct 26 2020
Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct, 26 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 23/1906Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 23/1621Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 23/1930Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 621 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and three (24 Oct, 26 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day two (25 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Oct 072 Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 23 Oct 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 009/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 015/020-012/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/40 Minor Storm 25/20/25 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 65/50/65
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Oct 23 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 23-Oct 25 2020 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 23-Oct 25 2020
Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct 25 00-03UT 1 3 3 03-06UT 1 4 4 06-09UT 1 3 3 09-12UT 0 3 3 12-15UT 1 2 2 15-18UT 3 3 3 18-21UT 4 3 3 21-00UT 5 (G1) 3 3
Rationale: G1 (Minor) levels likely on 23 Oct, due to influences from a series of CH HSS.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 23-Oct 25 2020
Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct 25 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 23-Oct 25 2020
Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct 25 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Oct 23 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2776 (S14W51, Hsx/alpha) remained stable and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 23-25 Oct.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 23-25 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total field strength averaged near 5 nT, the Bz component varied between +/-5 nT, wind speed was between 335-415 km/s, and the Phi angle spent several synoptic periods in both positive and negative sectors.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to see intermittent enhancements on 23-25 Oct due to the influence of several CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active and G1 (Minor) levels likely on 23 Oct, due to influences from a series of CH HSS. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 24-25 Oct as CH HSS effects persist.
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:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Oct 23 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA297 UGEOA 20401 01023 0330/ 9930/ 10231 22231 30232 99999 UGEOE 20401 01023 0330/ 22/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 01023 0330/ 22/// 10011 20750 3006/ 4///0 50000 62108 74504 80001 90060 99999 UGEOR 20401 01023 0330/ 22/24 23101 12776 20000 30000 47201 50060 60001 34514 00000 99999

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