Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 12/0105Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 12/0104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at 12/1035Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 103 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Nov 071 Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/05 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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