Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Jan 20 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. An area of enhanced plage, located near N22E30, showed signs of possible pore development but was not numbered during the period. At approximately 19/1835 UTC, a B1 flare was observed near the area of enhanced plage. Coronal dimming was also observed in SDO/AIA 195 imagery near the time of the flare, but at the time of this summary, no coronagraph imagery was available. Analysis will be conducted if a CME is observed as coronagraph imagery becomes available.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 20-22 Jan.
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below alert threshold values and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 20 Jan. High levels are likely on 21-22 Jan due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed varying between between 310-350 km/s. A slight enhancement to about 365 km/s was observed after 19/0713 UTC, but speeds steadily decreased to under 300 km/s by the end of the period. Total field ranged from 1-4 nT while the Bz component varied between +3/-4 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative, with periodic oscillations into the positive sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are likely to become enhanced on 20-21 Jan, due to combined effects of the arrival of the 14 Jan CME and onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Conditions are expected to subside on 22 Jan as CH HSS effects diminish.
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled levels, with a chance for isolated active conditions, on 20 Jan as the arrival of the 14 Jan CME is still possible. Additionally, the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS is expected midday on 20 Jan, with unsettled to active conditions expected to persist through 21 Jan. Unsettled levels are expected to continue into 22 Jan as CH HSS influence begins to taper off.
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