Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 May 21 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. There were no sunspots on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CME’s were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 21-23 May.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 21-23 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at background levels. Total field strength varied between 3-9 nT, and Bz underwent no significant southward deviations. Solar winds were generally steady around 400 km/s, and phi was positive.
.Forecast… Minor enhancements in the solar wind are anticipated on 21-22 May with a series of weak, recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS’s. Near-background conditions are expected on 23 May.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 21-22 May as a result of weak, recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS’s. A return to mostly quiet levels is anticipated by 23 May.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 May 21 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 21-May 23 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 21-May 23 2019
May 21 May 22 May 23 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 3 3 1 06-09UT 2 2 1 09-12UT 2 2 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 21-May 23 2019
May 21 May 22 May 23 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 21-May 23 2019
May 21 May 22 May 23 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2019 May 21 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 141 Issued at 0030Z on 21 May 2019 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 20 May I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 20/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 20/2400Z May Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 21 May to 23 May Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 May, 22 May, 23 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 424 km/s at 20/1951Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 20/0322Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 19/2351Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 579 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (21 May, 22 May) and quiet levels on day three (23 May).
III. Event probabilities 21 May-23 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 May 069 Predicted 21 May-23 May 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 20 May 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 May 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 May 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May 008/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May-23 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor Storm 30/30/20 Major-severe storm 25/25/15
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 May 20 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 20-May 22 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 20-May 22 2019
May 20 May 21 May 22 00-03UT 3 2 2 03-06UT 2 3 3 06-09UT 1 2 2 09-12UT 1 2 2 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 3 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 20-May 22 2019
May 20 May 21 May 22 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 20-May 22 2019
May 20 May 21 May 22 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 May 20 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 20-22 May.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 20 May with high flux levels possible on 21-22 May in response to recurrent CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected weak enhancements. Total magnetic field strength was between 4-9 nT. The Bz component briefly reached a maximum southward deflection of -6 nT. Solar wind speeds were mostly between 350-400 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly positive.
.Forecast… Weak enhancements in the solar wind are anticipated in response to multiple recurrent, negative polarity CH HSSs over 20-22 May.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the forecast period (20-22 May) due to the anticipated influence of multiple recurrent, negative polarity CH HSSs.
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Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data (The Weekly)

The latest version of “The Weekly” Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data is now posted on-line and available at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/weekly-highlights-and-27-day-forecast
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Space Weather Outlook

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #19-20 2019 May 19 at 11:41 p.m. MDT (2019 May 20 0541 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For May 13-19
G3 (Major) storm levels were observed on 14 May. No other significant space weather storms were observed.
Outlook For May 20-26
No significant space weather storms are expected.
Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More information is available at SWPC’s Web site swpc.noaa.gov
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 May 20 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA140 UGEOA 20401 90520 0330/ 9930/ 10201 20203 30201 99999 UGEOE 20401 90520 0330/ 19/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 90520 0330/ 19/// 10000 20680 3003/ 4///0 50000 67408 72004 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 90520 0330/ 19/24 20100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 May 20 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 140 Issued at 0245Z on 20 May 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 19 May A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 068 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 003/003 X-ray Background A7.3 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 1.2e+06 GT 10 MeV 2.0e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W128 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 2.00e+07 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W128 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 1 0 2 1 2 3 1 2 Planetary 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 2 F. Comments: None.
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