Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Apr 01 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low despite the emergence of a new sunspot group, Region 2759 (N28E51, Axx/alpha). The region was severely foreshortened, so a reliable magnetic analysis was not possible; however, it did appear to be a simple unipolar group with a positive polarity lead spot. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Despite minor development in Region 2759, it’s persistent magnetic simplicity and lack of activity leads to expectations of very low solar activity 1-3 Apr.
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels 1-3 Apr due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background.
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were indicative of continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total IMF strength decreased during the period from a maximum of 8 nT to 1-2 nT. The Bz component was variable most of the period, with several periods of prolonged southward direction and a maximum deviation of -6 nT. Solar wind speed ranged primarily from 450-530 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative.
.Forecast… CH HSS influences are anticipated to continue 1-3 Apr, although progressively weakening each day as the isolated, negative polarity CH HSS rotates away from a geoeffective position. Minor influences from the flank of the south polar CH HSS are likely afterwards.
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to active in response to CH HSS effects.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a chance of an early active period on 1 Apr due to continuing CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected 2-3 Apr in reaction to continuing, but weakening CH HSS influences.
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