Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2018 Aug 17 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA229 UGEOA 20401 80817 0330/ 9930/ 10171 20171 30171 99999 UGEOE 20401 80817 0330/ 16/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 80817 0330/ 16/// 10012 20680 3011/ 4///0 50000 61408 71704 80001 90010 99999 UGEOR 20401 80817 0330/ 16/24 17101 12718 20000 30000 42012 50010 60002 22308 00000 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2018 Aug 17 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 229 Issued at 0245Z on 17 Aug 2018 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 16 Aug A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 068 SSN 012 Afr/Ap 011/010 X-ray Background A1.4 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 2.2e+05 GT 10 MeV 1.7e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W135 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 8.00e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W135 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 3 2 3 3 2 3 2 3 Planetary 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 3 F. Comments: None
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Aug 17 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2718(S08E23, Bxo/beta) produced an A8 flare at 16/0918 UTC. A coronal dimming was associated with the event but no subsequent CME signatures were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 17-19 Aug.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (17-19 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, were indicative of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength reached 14 nT, solar wind speeds peaked at 512 km/s, and the Bz component saw a maximum deflection of -5 nT. Phi was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to trend towards nominal levels as CH HSS effects diminish on 17 Aug. Ambient solar wind conditions are expected over 18-19 Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to influence from a positive polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled on 17 Aug as CH HSS effects diminish. The return of an ambient solar wind regime is expected to produce quiet conditions on 18-19 Aug.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Aug 17 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 17-Aug 19 2018 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 17-Aug 19 2018
Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 19 00-03UT 3 2 1 03-06UT 3 2 2 06-09UT 3 2 1 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 1 2 21-00UT 2 1 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 17-Aug 19 2018
Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 19 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 17-Aug 19 2018
Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 19 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2018 Aug 17 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 229 Issued at 0030Z on 17 Aug 2018 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 16 Aug I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 16/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2718 S08E23 191 0010 Bxo 02 02 Beta IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 16/2400Z Aug Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 17 Aug to 19 Aug Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Aug, 18 Aug, 19 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 16/0128Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 16/1007Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 15/2106Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 391 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Aug 068 Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 16 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 012/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 012/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 010/010-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 25/10/10
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Aug 16 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2718 (S07E30, Bxo/beta) exhibited slight decay in its trailer spots, but did manage to produce an A8 flare at 16/0918 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 16-18 Aug.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels on 16-17 Aug and increasing to moderate levels by 18 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, were indicative of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength reached 14 nT, solar wind speeds peaked at 512 km/s, and the Bz component saw a maximum deflection of -9 nT. Phi was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced from the influence of the positive polarity CH HSS through 16 Aug. Enhancements are expected to wane on 17 Aug and return to nominal levels by 18 Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to influence from a positive polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 16 Aug and quiet to unsettled on 17 Aug as CH HSS effects persist. The return of an ambient solar wind regime is expected to produce quiet conditions on 18 Aug.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Aug 16 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 16-Aug 18 2018 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 16-Aug 18 2018
Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug 18 00-03UT 4 3 2 03-06UT 2 3 2 06-09UT 3 3 2 09-12UT 3 2 1 12-15UT 3 2 1 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 1 21-00UT 3 2 1
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 16-Aug 18 2018
Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug 18 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 16-Aug 18 2018
Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug 18 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2018 Aug 16 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA228 UGEOA 20401 80816 0330/ 9930/ 10161 21161 30161 99999 UGEOE 20401 80816 0330/ 15/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 80816 0330/ 15/// 10012 20690 3014/ 4///0 50000 61508 71704 80001 90010 99999 UGEOR 20401 80816 0330/ 15/24 16101 12718 20000 30000 43112 50010 60002 23607 00000 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2018 Aug 16 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 228 Issued at 0245Z on 16 Aug 2018 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 15 Aug A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 069 SSN 012 Afr/Ap 012/014 X-ray Background A1.4 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 8.7e+05 GT 10 MeV 1.7e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W135 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 8.70e+05 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W135 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 1 2 3 4 4 3 3 3 Planetary 2 1 2 4 4 3 3 3 F. Comments: None
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