Auroral Power

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Nov 13 0332 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA317 UGEOA 20401 91113 0330/ 9930/ 10131 20132 30132 99999 UGEOE 20401 91113 0330/ 12/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 91113 0330/ 12/// 10000 20710 3004/ 4///0 50000 67908 72104 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 91113 0330/ 12/24 13100 99999

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:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Nov 13 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 317 Issued at 0245Z on 13 Nov 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 12 Nov A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic ield was mostly quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 071 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 003/002 X-ray Background A7.8 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 9.2e+04 GT 10 MeV 2.1e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-14 satellite synchronous orbit W105 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 1.70e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-14 satellite synchronous orbit W105 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 2 1 1 1 1 3 1 0 Planetary 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 F. Comments: None
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Nov 13 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 13-Nov 15 2019 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 13-Nov 15 2019
Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 1 1 1 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2019
Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2019
Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Nov 13 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. There were no numbered regions at this time. However, an area of flux rotating into view near the southwest limb is being closely monitored to determine if any spots are present. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Very low solar activity is expected to continue 13-15 Nov.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels through 15 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters returned to near-background levels. Total field strength peaked early in the day at 13 nT, and the Bz component was mostly northward all day. Solar wind speeds averaged around 350 km/s, and the phi angle was negative.
.Forecast… An ambient, background-like IMF is expected on 13-15 Nov.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (13-15 Nov).
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:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2019 Nov 13 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 317 Issued at 0030Z on 13 Nov 2019 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 12 Nov I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 12/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 12/2400Z Nov Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 13 Nov to 15 Nov Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 12/0105Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 12/0104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at 12/1035Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 103 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Nov 071 Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/05 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Nov 12 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. An active region at approximately S23E80 appeared to develop potential spots late in the period, however, we await confirmatory observatory reports and adequate existence duration before assigning the next available NOAA/SWPC region number. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Very low solar activity is expected to continue 12-14 Nov.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux decreased from moderate to normal levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 12-13 Nov and increase to high levels by 14 Nov due to anticipated CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters continued to exhibit an enhanced IMF in a slow solar wind regime. Total IMF strength was 9 to 13 nT; however the Bz component was predominantly northward. Solar wind speed was primarily 350-375 km/s and the phi angle was negative.
.Forecast… The enhancement in the total IMF strength is not anticipated to continue beyond 12 Nov. A return to an ambient, background-like IMF state is expected on 13-14 Nov.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to remain predominantly quiet to unsettled, with an active period still possible due to the enhanced IMF state on 12 Nov. Predominantly quiet conditions are anticipated 13-14 Nov as the enhanced IMF weakens and slow solar wind speeds continue.
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Nov 12 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 12-Nov 14 2019 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 12-Nov 14 2019
Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 1 1 1 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 3 1 1 18-21UT 4 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 12-Nov 14 2019
Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 12-Nov 14 2019
Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Nov 12 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA316 UGEOA 20401 91112 0330/ 9930/ 10121 20121 30121 99999 UGEOE 20401 91112 0330/ 11/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 91112 0330/ 11/// 10000 20700 3007/ 4///0 50000 67308 72204 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 91112 0330/ 11/24 12100 99999

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:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Nov 12 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 316 Issued at 0245Z on 12 Nov 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 11 Nov A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 070 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 007/006 X-ray Background A7.3 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 6.2e+05 GT 10 MeV 2.2e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-14 satellite synchronous orbit W105 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 2.00e+07 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-14 satellite synchronous orbit W105 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 0 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 Planetary 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 F. Comments: None
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