Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data (The Weekly)

The latest version of “The Weekly” Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data is now posted on-line and available at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/weekly-highlights-and-27-day-forecast
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Jan 20 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA020 UGEOA 20401 00120 0330/ 9930/ 10201 20201 30201 99999 UGEOE 20401 00120 0330/ 19/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 00120 0330/ 19/// 10000 20720 3003/ 4///0 50000 62109 74604 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 00120 0330/ 19/24 20100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Jan 20 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 020 Issued at 0245Z on 20 Jan 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 19 Jan A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: Quiet D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 072 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 002/002 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data (The Weekly)

The latest version of “The Weekly” Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data is now posted on-line and available at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/weekly-highlights-and-27-day-forecast
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Space Weather Outlook

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #20-3 2020 January 19 at 5:45 p.m. MST (2020 January 20 0045 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For January 13-19
No space weather storms were observed during the summary period.
Outlook For January 20-26
No space weather storms are expected during the outlook period.
Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More information is available at SWPC’s Web site swpc.noaa.gov
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Jan 20 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 20-Jan 22 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 20-Jan 22 2020
Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22 00-03UT 2 4 3 03-06UT 2 3 3 06-09UT 2 2 3 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 2 2 2 15-18UT 3 2 2 18-21UT 3 3 2 21-00UT 4 4 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 20-Jan 22 2020
Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 20-Jan 22 2020
Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Jan 20 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. An area of enhanced plage, located near N22E30, showed signs of possible pore development but was not numbered during the period. At approximately 19/1835 UTC, a B1 flare was observed near the area of enhanced plage. Coronal dimming was also observed in SDO/AIA 195 imagery near the time of the flare, but at the time of this summary, no coronagraph imagery was available. Analysis will be conducted if a CME is observed as coronagraph imagery becomes available.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 20-22 Jan.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below alert threshold values and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 20 Jan. High levels are likely on 21-22 Jan due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed varying between between 310-350 km/s. A slight enhancement to about 365 km/s was observed after 19/0713 UTC, but speeds steadily decreased to under 300 km/s by the end of the period. Total field ranged from 1-4 nT while the Bz component varied between +3/-4 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative, with periodic oscillations into the positive sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are likely to become enhanced on 20-21 Jan, due to combined effects of the arrival of the 14 Jan CME and onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Conditions are expected to subside on 22 Jan as CH HSS effects diminish.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled levels, with a chance for isolated active conditions, on 20 Jan as the arrival of the 14 Jan CME is still possible. Additionally, the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS is expected midday on 20 Jan, with unsettled to active conditions expected to persist through 21 Jan. Unsettled levels are expected to continue into 22 Jan as CH HSS influence begins to taper off.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Jan 20 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 20 Issued at 0030Z on 20 Jan 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 19 Jan I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 19/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 19/2400Z Jan Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 20 Jan to 22 Jan Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 366 km/s at 19/0717Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 179 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Jan, 21 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Jan 072 Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 008/012-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/20 Minor Storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 40/40/25
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Jan 19 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 19-Jan 21 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 19-Jan 21 2020
Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 00-03UT 0 2 4 03-06UT 1 2 3 06-09UT 0 2 2 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 3 2 2 15-18UT 3 3 2 18-21UT 2 3 3 21-00UT 2 4 4
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 19-Jan 21 2020
Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 19-Jan 21 2020
Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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