Auroral Power

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Jun 01 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. New Region 2764 (N35E54, Axx/alpha) was numbered today. This isolated spot is the remnant of a region that produced an M1 flare on 29 May just beyond the NE limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low over 01-03 Jun.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 01-03 Jun and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters continued at nominal levels over the period with solar wind speed ranging from 370-435 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-4 nT while the Bz component was between +/-3 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a negative (towards) solar sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be at or near nominal levels through 03 Jun.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… Mostly quiet levels are expected for 01-03 Jun under a nominal solar wind regime.
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:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Jun 01 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA153 UGEOA 20401 00601 0330/ 9930/ 10011 20011 30011 99999 UGEOE 20401 00601 0330/ 31/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 00601 0330/ 31/// 10000 20710 3004/ 4///0 50000 61308 74604 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 00601 0330/ 31/24 01100 99999

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:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Jun 01 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 153 Issued at 0245Z on 01 Jun 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 31 May A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 071 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 004/003 X-ray Background A1.3 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 5.4e+04 GT 10 MeV 4.6e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 1.20e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 2 1 0 1 2 1 1 1 Planetary 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 F. Comments: None
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The latest version of “The Weekly” Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data is now posted on-line and available at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/weekly-highlights-and-27-day-forecast
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Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #20-22 2020 May 31 at 7:43 p.m. MDT (2020 June 1 0143 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For May 25-31
No significant space weather storms were observed during the summary period.
Outlook For June 1-7
No significant space weather storms are expected for the forecast period.
Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More information is available at SWPC’s Web site swpc.noaa.gov
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Jun 01 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low over 01-03 Jun.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 01-03 Jun and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected mostly nominal conditions. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 6 nT. No significant periods of southward Bz were observed. Solar wind speeds were between ~380-420 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be at or near nominal levels through 03 Jun.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… Mostly quiet levels are expected for 01-03 Jun under a nominal solar wind regime.
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Jun 01 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 01-Jun 03 2020 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 01-Jun 03 2020
Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 00-03UT 1 2 1 03-06UT 1 2 1 06-09UT 2 1 2 09-12UT 1 1 2 12-15UT 2 1 2 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 1 1 1 21-00UT 2 2 1
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 01-Jun 03 2020
Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 01-Jun 03 2020
Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Jun 01 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 153 Issued at 0030Z on 01 Jun 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 31 May I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 31/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 31/2400Z May Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 01 Jun to 03 Jun Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun, 03 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 425 km/s at 31/0029Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 30/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 30/2126Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 105 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun, 03 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 May 071 Predicted 01 Jun-03 Jun 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 31 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 May 013/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun 006/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 May 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 31-Jun 02 2020 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 31-Jun 02 2020
May 31 Jun 01 Jun 02 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 1 1 2 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 1 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 31-Jun 02 2020
May 31 Jun 01 Jun 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 31-Jun 02 2020
May 31 Jun 01 Jun 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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