Auroral Power

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2018 Oct 22 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA295 UGEOA 20401 81022 0330/ 9930/ 10221 20221 30221 99999 UGEOE 20401 81022 0330/ 21/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 81022 0330/ 21/// 10000 20710 3004/ 4///0 50000 66609 71604 80002 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 81022 0330/ 21/24 22100 99999

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:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2018 Oct 22 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 295 Issued at 0245Z on 22 Oct 2018 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 21 Oct A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 071 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 004/005 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #18-43 2018 October 21 at 6:50 p.m. MDT (2018 October 22 0050 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For October 15-21
No significant space weather was observed during the summary period.
Outlook For October 22-28
No significant space weather is expected for the outlook period.
Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More information is available at SWPC’s Web site swpc.noaa.gov
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The latest version of “The Weekly” Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data is now posted on-line and available at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/weekly-highlights-and-27-day-forecast
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Oct 22 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 22-Oct 24 2018 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 22-Oct 24 2018
Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24 00-03UT 2 2 3 03-06UT 2 1 3 06-09UT 1 2 3 09-12UT 1 1 2 12-15UT 1 1 2 15-18UT 1 1 2 18-21UT 2 1 3 21-00UT 2 2 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 22-Oct 24 2018
Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 22-Oct 24 2018
Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Oct 22 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 22-24 Oct.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels this period with a peak flux of 814 pfu observed at 21/0005 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels each of the next three days and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… A solar wind enhancement due to a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) followed by weak influence of a positive polarity CH HSS was observed this period. Solar wind speed values were steady between 275-300 km/s until around 21/0700 UTC. Winds then increased to a peak of 399 km/s around 1428 UTC. Total field strength values reached 9 nT while Bz reached -8 nT due to CIR arrival. Solar wind density also underwent an increase, sparply rising to 36 particles per cubic cm before also undergoing a downward trend. The temperature profile was consistent with CH HSS influence.
.Forecast… Background levels are expected on 22-24 Oct as conditions continue the trend towards the return of a nominal solar wind regime.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet this period despite weak CH HSS influence.
.Forecast… Quiet conditions are expected on 22-23 Oct with the anticipated return of a nominal solar wind regime. Unsettled conditions are likely 24 Oct, with a chance of an isolated period of active conditions, due to influence from a negative polarity CH HSS.
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:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2018 Oct 22 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 295 Issued at 0030Z on 22 Oct 2018 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 21 Oct I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 21/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 21/2400Z Oct Nmbr Location Lo 2724 S07W69 133 2725 S11W49 113 II. Regions Due to Return 22 Oct to 24 Oct Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 399 km/s at 21/1429Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 21/1149Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 21/1129Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1192 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (22 Oct, 23 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Oct 071 Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 070/069/069 90 Day Mean 21 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 000/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 006/006-005/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/25 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor Storm 20/20/30 Major-severe storm 10/10/30
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Oct 21 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low and the solar disk was spotless. No CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 21-23 Oct.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 1,210 pfu observed at 20/2055 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels each of the next three days and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… A solar wind enhancement due to a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) followed by the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS was observed this period. Solar wind speed values were steady between 275-300 km/s until around 21/0700 UTC, when speeds began to increase to end-of-period values around 335 km/s. Total field strength values reached 9nT and Bz reached -7nT late in the period. Solar wind density values steadily increased throughout the period and the temperature profile was consistent with CH HSS influence.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 21 Oct under continued influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Background levels are expected on 22-23 Oct with the return of a nominal solar wind regime.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet this period despite weak CH HSS influence.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 21 Oct in response to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Generally quiet conditions are expected on 22-23 Oct with the anticipated return of a nominal solar wind regime.
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Oct 21 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 21-Oct 23 2018 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 21-Oct 23 2018
Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 23 00-03UT 0 1 2 03-06UT 0 2 1 06-09UT 0 1 2 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 3 1 1 18-21UT 3 2 1 21-00UT 3 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 21-Oct 23 2018
Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 23 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 21-Oct 23 2018
Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 23 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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