Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Apr 01 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA092 UGEOA 20401 00401 0330/ 9930/ 10013 21011 30017 99999 UGEOE 20401 00401 0330/ 31/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 00401 0330/ 31/// 10012 20700 3014/ 4///0 50000 61308 74604 80101 90010 99999 UGEOR 20401 00401 0330/ 31/24 01101 12759 20000 30000 41001 50010 60002 15128 00000 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Apr 01 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 092 Issued at 0245Z on 01 Apr 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 31 Mar A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 070 SSN 012 Afr/Ap 010/013 X-ray Background A1.2 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 9.4e+04 GT 10 MeV 4.6e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 9.00e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 4 4 3 2 3 2 2 1 Planetary 4 4 3 2 3 2 2 2 F. Comments: None
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Apr 01 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 01-Apr 03 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 01-Apr 03 2020
Apr 01 Apr 02 Apr 03 00-03UT 4 3 2 03-06UT 3 2 3 06-09UT 3 2 2 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 3 2 2 18-21UT 3 2 3 21-00UT 2 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 01-Apr 03 2020
Apr 01 Apr 02 Apr 03 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 01-Apr 03 2020
Apr 01 Apr 02 Apr 03 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Apr 01 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low despite the emergence of a new sunspot group, Region 2759 (N28E51, Axx/alpha). The region was severely foreshortened, so a reliable magnetic analysis was not possible; however, it did appear to be a simple unipolar group with a positive polarity lead spot. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Despite minor development in Region 2759, it’s persistent magnetic simplicity and lack of activity leads to expectations of very low solar activity 1-3 Apr.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels 1-3 Apr due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were indicative of continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total IMF strength decreased during the period from a maximum of 8 nT to 1-2 nT. The Bz component was variable most of the period, with several periods of prolonged southward direction and a maximum deviation of -6 nT. Solar wind speed ranged primarily from 450-530 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative.
.Forecast… CH HSS influences are anticipated to continue 1-3 Apr, although progressively weakening each day as the isolated, negative polarity CH HSS rotates away from a geoeffective position. Minor influences from the flank of the south polar CH HSS are likely afterwards.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to active in response to CH HSS effects.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a chance of an early active period on 1 Apr due to continuing CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected 2-3 Apr in reaction to continuing, but weakening CH HSS influences.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Apr 01 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 92 Issued at 0030Z on 01 Apr 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 31 Mar I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 31/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2759 N28E51 261 0010 Axx 02 02 Alpha IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 31/2400Z Mar Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 01 Apr to 03 Apr Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 31/1355Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 31/0548Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/0525Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 391 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Mar 070 Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 31 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 013/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 010/012-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/15 Minor Storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 40/30/20
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Mar 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 31-Apr 02 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 31-Apr 02 2020
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02 00-03UT 4 3 3 03-06UT 4 2 2 06-09UT 4 2 2 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 2 2 2 15-18UT 2 2 2 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 3 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 31 Mar due to CH HSS effects.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 31-Apr 02 2020
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 31-Apr 02 2020
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Mar 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 31 Mar-02 Apr.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 31 Mar-02 Apr due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters indicated the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 405 km/s to a maximum of 527 km/s at 30/2155 UTC. Total field ranged from 2-8 nT while the Bz component was between +6/-7 nT. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in a negative solar sector.
.Forecast… Influences from the negative polarity CH HSS are anticipated to continue causing a mildly disturbed IMF and enhanced solar wind speed field on 31 Mar-02 Apr. Conditions are anticipated to weaken slightly on 01-02 Apr as total IMF strength decreases.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels due to CH HSS effects.
.Forecast… Quiet to active periods are expected to continue through 31 Mar followed by quiet to unsettled periods on 01-02 Apr as CH HSS effects persist.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Mar 31 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA091 UGEOA 20401 00331 0330/ 9930/ 10311 21311 30311 99999 UGEOE 20401 00331 0330/ 30/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 00331 0330/ 30/// 10000 20690 3011/ 4///0 50000 61208 74604 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 00331 0330/ 30/24 31100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Mar 31 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 091 Issued at 0245Z on 31 Mar 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Mar A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 069 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 008/010 X-ray Background A1.1 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 1.2e+05 GT 10 MeV 4.6e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 7.80e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 1 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 Planetary 1 2 2 1 2 3 3 3 F. Comments: None
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