Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 17/2116Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/0202Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/0139Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Jan 069 Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 069/069/071 90 Day Mean 18 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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