NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Jul 14 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 14-Jul 16 2018 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 14-Jul 16 2018
Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul 16 00-03UT 2 2 3 03-06UT 1 1 2 06-09UT 1 1 2 09-12UT 1 2 2 12-15UT 1 2 1 15-18UT 1 2 1 18-21UT 2 3 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 14-Jul 16 2018
Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul 16 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 14-Jul 16 2018
Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul 16 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Jul 13 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 14-16 Jul.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 14-16 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected a slightly enhanced solar wind regime.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly enhanced on 14-16 Jul.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day one (14 Jul). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on days two and three (15-16 Jul) due to influence from a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2018 Jul 14 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 195 Issued at 0030Z on 14 Jul 2018 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 13 Jul I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 13/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 13/2400Z Jul Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 14 Jul to 16 Jul Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Jul, 15 Jul, 16 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 500 km/s at 13/0656Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/2349Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/2349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 117 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Jul 073 Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 13 Jul 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 006/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 15/20/20
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Space Weather Outlook

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #18-18 2018 April 29 at 7:46 p.m. MDT (2018 April 30 0146 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For April 23-29
No significant space weather was observed during the summary period.
Outlook For April 30-May 6
No significant space weather is expected during the outlook period.
Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More information is available at SWPC’s Web site swpc.noaa.gov Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Space Weather Outlook

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #18-17 2018 April 22 at 7:56 p.m. MDT (2018 April 23 0156 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For April 16-22
G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions were observed on 20 April due to coronal hole effects.
No other significant space weather was observed.
Outlook For April 23-29
No significant space weather is expected during the outlook period.
Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More information is available at SWPC’s Web site swpc.noaa.gov Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 (G2)

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06 Serial Number: 461 Issue Time: 2018 Apr 20 1045 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 Threshold Reached: 2018 Apr 20 1044 UTC Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Scale: G2 – Moderate
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents – Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft – Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio – HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora – Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state. Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 (G2)

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06 Serial Number: 460 Issue Time: 2018 Apr 20 0825 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 Threshold Reached: 2018 Apr 20 0825 UTC Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Scale: G2 – Moderate
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents – Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft – Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio – HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora – Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state. Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 (G2)

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06 Serial Number: 416 Issue Time: 2018 Apr 20 0714 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected Valid From: 2018 Apr 20 0714 UTC Valid To: 2018 Apr 20 1200 UTC Warning Condition: Onset NOAA Scale: G2 – Moderate
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents – Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft – Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio – HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora – Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state. Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Space Weather Outlook

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #18-16 2018 April 15 at 7:30 p.m. MDT (2018 April 16 0130 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For April 9-15
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions were met early on 11 April due to effects from a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream.
No other significant space weather was observed.
Outlook For April 16-22
No significant space weather is expected during the outlook period.
Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More information is available at SWPC’s Web site swpc.noaa.gov Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.