Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2018 Oct 13 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 286 Issued at 0245Z on 13 Oct 2018 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 12 Oct A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep 0143 0150 0156 2724 B2.1 II B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: Quiet D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 072 SSN 011 Afr/Ap 004/004 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Oct 13 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 13-Oct 15 2018 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 13-Oct 15 2018
Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 00-03UT 2 4 3 03-06UT 1 3 3 06-09UT 1 2 2 09-12UT 1 2 2 12-15UT 1 2 2 15-18UT 1 3 2 18-21UT 2 3 2 21-00UT 2 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 13-Oct 15 2018
Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 13-Oct 15 2018
Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Oct 13 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low. Region 2724 (S08E57, Hrx/alpha) produced a B7/Sf at 12/1408 UTC and a B2 flare at 12/0150 UTC, with an associated Type II radio sweep (est. velocity 864 km/s). No Earth directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flaring on 13-15 Oct.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, observing a maximum flux value of 36,880 pfu at 12/1855 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 13 Oct, and moderate to high levels on 14-15 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters continued a transition to a background, ambient solar wind regime. Solar wind speed averaged around 460 km/s to begin the period, and ended the period around 350 km/s. Total field strength has remained steady between 1-5 nT, and the Bz component was predominately southward averaging around -4 nT. Phi angle was predominantly in a positive orientation, with several oscillations to the negative sector throughout the period.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to continue at ambient conditions on 13 Oct. A return to a slightly enhanced solar wind environment is expected on 14-15 Oct with arrival of a CIR ahead of a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… Quiet levels are expected on 13 Oct. Active conditions are likely on 14 Oct with the anticipated arrival of a CIR ahead of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled conditions are likely 15 Oct with a chance for active conditions early in the period.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2018 Oct 13 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 286 Issued at 0030Z on 13 Oct 2018 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 12 Oct I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 12/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2724 S08E57 126 0020 Hrx 01 01 Alpha IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 12/2400Z Oct Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 13 Oct to 15 Oct Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 478 km/s at 12/0128Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 36880 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (14 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Oct 072 Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 073/073/073 90 Day Mean 12 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 006/005-010/012-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/25/20 Minor Storm 01/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/25 Major-severe storm 20/30/25
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Oct 12 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 12-Oct 14 2018 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 12-Oct 14 2018
Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 00-03UT 1 2 3 03-06UT 2 1 3 06-09UT 2 1 2 09-12UT 1 1 2 12-15UT 1 1 3 15-18UT 2 1 3 18-21UT 2 2 3 21-00UT 2 2 4
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 12-Oct 14 2018
Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 12-Oct 14 2018
Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Oct 12 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low. Newly numbered Region 2724 (S08E59, Hrx/alpha) rotated onto the visible disk and produced a B2 flare at approximately 12/0150 UTC, along with an associated Type II radio sweep (est. velocity 864 km/s). Analysis of any associated CME will be accomplished once LASCO coronagraph imagery becomes available.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 12-14 Oct.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, observing a maximum flux value of 35,911 pfu at 11/1940 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels from 12-14 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters began its transition to a background, ambient solar wind regime. Solar wind speed averaged around 500 km/s to begin the period, averaged near 475 km/s, and ended the period just over 400 km/s. Total field strength has remained steady between 3-5 nT, and the Bz component varied between +/-3 nT. Phi angle was predominantly in a positive orientation throughout most of the period, with isolated oscillations to the negative sector early in the period.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to continue gradually returning towards ambient conditions from 12-13 Oct as CH HSS (positive polarity) influence continues to wane. A return to a slightly enhanced solar wind environment is expected by 14 Oct with arrival of the CIR ahead of the recurrent negative polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 12-13 Oct as CH HSS (positive polarity) influences wane. Active conditions are likely on 14 Oct with the anticipated arrival of the CIR ahead of the recurrent negative polarity CH HSS.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2018 Oct 12 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA285 UGEOA 20401 81012 0330/ 9930/ 10121 20121 30121 99999 UGEOE 20401 81012 0330/ 11/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 81012 0330/ 11/// 10000 20710 3009/ 4///0 50000 61209 71604 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 81012 0330/ 11/24 12100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2018 Oct 12 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 285 Issued at 0245Z on 12 Oct 2018 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 11 Oct A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 071 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 007/009 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2 Serial Number: 1068 Issue Time: 2018 Oct 12 0239 UTC
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission Begin Time: 2018 Oct 12 0152 UTC Estimated Velocity: 864 km/s
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
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