Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Jan 19 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA019 UGEOA 20401 90119 0330/ 9930/ 10191 20191 30191 99999 UGEOE 20401 90119 0330/ 18/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 90119 0330/ 18/// 10000 20690 3006/ 4///0 50000 67309 71704 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 90119 0330/ 18/24 19100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Jan 19 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 019 Issued at 0245Z on 19 Jan 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 18 Jan A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: Field activity was at quiet levels. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 069 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 005/005 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Jan 19 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 19-Jan 21 2019 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 19-Jan 21 2019
Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 1 1 1 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 19-Jan 21 2019
Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 19-Jan 21 2019
Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Jan 19 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Active regions were absent from the visible disk. No CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 19-21 Jan.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… Normal to moderate levels of the greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected on 18-20 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels all three days.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, indicated waning influence of a weak, negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds declined from around 475 km/s to near 420 km/s by the period’s end. Total magnetic field strength ranged between 3-6 nT and no significant periods of negative Bz were observed. Phi angle was oriented in the negative sector.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is likely to be near background levels over 19-21 Jan.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is likely to be at quiet levels on 19-21 Jan under a mostly nominal solar wind regime.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2019 Jan 19 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 19 Issued at 0030Z on 19 Jan 2019 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 18 Jan I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 18/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 18/2400Z Jan Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 19 Jan to 21 Jan Nmbr Lat Lo 2732 N09 234
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 17/2116Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/0202Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/0139Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Jan 069 Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 069/069/071 90 Day Mean 18 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Jan 18 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 18-Jan 20 2019 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 18-Jan 20 2019
Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 2 1 1 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 18-Jan 20 2019
Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 18-Jan 20 2019
Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Jan 18 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low and no sunspots were present on the visible disk. No CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 18-20 Jan.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… Normal to moderate levels of the greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected on 18-20 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels all three days.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were indicative of influences of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field strength was elevated and reached a peak of near 11 nT, while the Bz component was mostly oriented northward. Solar wind speed averaged near 475 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is likely to remain enhanced through 18 Jan due to influences of the negative polarity CH HSS continue. 19-20 Jan are expected to experience nominal conditions as CH HSS influences wane.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… Solar wind conditions are expected to remain elevated on 18 Jan in response to minor CH HSS effects. Quiet conditions are expected on 19-20 Jan as background-like conditions return.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Jan 18 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA018 UGEOA 20401 90118 0330/ 9930/ 10181 20181 30181 99999 UGEOE 20401 90118 0330/ 17/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 90118 0330/ 17/// 10000 20690 3007/ 4///0 50000 66109 71704 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 90118 0330/ 17/24 18100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Jan 18 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 018 Issued at 0245Z on 18 Jan 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 17 Jan A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 069 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 005/004 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.