Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Feb 25 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2804 (N20W40, Dsi/beta) exhibited growth in its intermediate and trailer spots, and consolidation in the leader spots. This region continued to produce multiple low to mid-level B-class flares. Region 2805 (S22W34, Axx/alpha) continued to decay and remained inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for C-class flaring on 25-27 Feb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum of 22,370 pfu observed at 24/1740 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 25-27 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were indicative of persistent CME effects. Total field began the period slightly elevated to near 9 nT before slowly decreasing to end the period near 5 nT. The Bz component was mostly negative throughout the period, seeing a maximum southward deflection to -8 nT early. Solar wind speed ranged from 435-508 km/s, and the Phi angle was variable.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect persistent yet waning CME effects. Solar wind speed is expected to continue in the 450-550 km/s range before slowly returning to ambient conditions on 26-27 Feb.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active due to persistent CME effects.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels through midday on 25 Feb as CME effects persist. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on 26-27 Feb.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Feb 25 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 25-Feb 27 2021 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 25-Feb 27 2021
Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb 27 00-03UT 4 2 2 03-06UT 3 1 2 06-09UT 3 1 1 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 1 21-00UT 3 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 25-Feb 27 2021
Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb 27 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 25-Feb 27 2021
Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb 27 R1-R2 5% 5% 5% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2021 Feb 25 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA056 UGEOA 20401 10225 0330/ 9930/ 10251 21251 30251 99999 UGEOE 20401 10225 0330/ 24/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 10225 0330/ 24/// 10033 20810 3021/ 4///0 50000 65408 74304 80003 90150 99999 UGEOR 20401 10225 0330/ 24/24 25102 12804 20000 30200 44322 50120 60010 43319 03000 12805 20000 30000 43212 50030 60003 32822 01000 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2021 Feb 25 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 056 Issued at 0245Z on 25 Feb 2021 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 24 Feb A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 081 SSN 033 Afr/Ap 016/017 X-ray Background A5.3 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 2.5e+05 GT 10 MeV 4.3e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 2.50e+08 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 2 2 3 3 2 4 3 2 Planetary 2 2 3 3 2 4 4 3 F. Comments: None
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Feb 25 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 25-Feb 27 2021 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 25-Feb 27 2021
Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb 27 00-03UT 4 2 2 03-06UT 4 1 2 06-09UT 3 1 1 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 3 2 1 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 25-Feb 27 2021
Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb 27 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 25-Feb 27 2021
Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb 27 R1-R2 5% 5% 5% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2021 Feb 25 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 56 Issued at 0030Z on 25 Feb 2021 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 24 Feb I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 24/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2804 N19W33 309 0120 Dai 07 10 Beta 2805 S22W28 304 0030 Cso 05 03 Beta IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 24/2400Z Feb Nmbr Location Lo 2803 N20W03 279 II. Regions Due to Return 25 Feb to 27 Feb Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Feb 25 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2804 (N19W33, Dai/beta) grew moderately over the period and produced multiple low level B-class flares. Region 2805 (S22W28, Cso/beta) was in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for C-class flaring on 25-27 Feb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum of 22,370 pfu observed at 24/1740 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 25-27 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters indicated the arrival of the 20 Feb CME at approximately 24/0411 UTC. No significant discontinuity in solar wind speed was observed and remained in the 435-526 km/s range. Total field ranged from 2-9 nT while the Bz component was between +/-8 nT. Phi angle was variable.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be mildly enhanced from the 20 Feb CME through approximately midday on 25 Feb. Solar wind speed is expected to continue in the 450-550 km/s range. A slow return to ambient solar wind conditions is expected on 26-27 Feb.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active due to activity associated with the arrival of the 20 Feb CME.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels through midday on 25 Feb as CME effects persist. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on 26-27 Feb.
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 24/0822Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 24/1534Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 24/1617Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22370 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Feb 081 Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 24 Feb 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 017/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 012/012-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/05/05 Minor Storm 10/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/20/20 Major-severe storm 40/10/10
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Feb 24 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2804 (N18W27, Dso/beta) continued to exhibit slight growth, mainly in the trailing spots, but most of the associated flare activity has subsided. Region 2805 (S22W21, Cao/beta) continued to decay, and also remained inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for isolated C-class flaring on 24-26 Feb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum of 14,236 pfu observed at 23/1520 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 24-26 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced from a waning negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed began the period near 580 km/s before decreasing to near 470 km/s by 24/0300 UTC. Total field strength averaged near 4 nT, while the Bz component was between +/-3 nT. Just after 24/0400 UTC, the IMF saw weak enhancements in the mag field, along with fluctuations in density, winds, and temperature, all possibly associated with arrival of the 20 Feb CME. Phi angle spent significant amounts of time in both the negative (towards) and positive (away) sectors throughout the period.
.Forecast… With the probable arrival of the 20 Feb CME, enhancements in the IMF remain likely on 24 Feb. However, those enhancements should begin to taper off late in the day on 24 Feb. Ambient conditions should slowly return by 25 Feb.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, due to a combination of HSS activity coupled with the likely weak arrival of the 20 Feb CME.
.Forecast… Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected on 24 Feb due to a combination of HSS activity coupled with the likely arrival of the 20 Feb CME. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 25 Feb followed by mostly quiet conditions on 26 Feb as activity diminishes.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Feb 24 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 24-Feb 26 2021 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 24-Feb 26 2021
Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb 26 00-03UT 3 3 2 03-06UT 3 3 1 06-09UT 4 2 1 09-12UT 3 2 1 12-15UT 3 2 1 15-18UT 2 2 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 5 (G1) 2 2
Rationale: Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected on 24 Feb due to a combination of HSS activity coupled with the likely arrival of the 20 Feb CME.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 24-Feb 26 2021
Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb 26 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 24-Feb 26 2021
Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb 26 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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