Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 329 km/s at 31/2052Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5068 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (02 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Jan 073 Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 073/073/072 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 002/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 013/018-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/30/25 Minor Storm 25/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/30 Major-severe storm 60/40/30
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Jan 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low the remainder of 31 Jan and 01-02 Feb.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at high levels 31 Jan and reach high levels on 01-02 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected background conditions.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at near background levels the remainder of 31 Jan. An enhanced solar wind environment is likely on 01-02 Feb as a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet until late on 31 Jan when unsettled conditions are more likely with the anticipated onset of CH HSS activity. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 01 Feb in response to the recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS influence. Active conditions are likely on 02 Feb as coronal hole activity persists.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Jan 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 31-Feb 02 2021 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 31-Feb 02 2021
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 00-03UT 1 2 4 03-06UT 0 2 3 06-09UT 0 2 3 09-12UT 0 2 3 12-15UT 2 3 3 15-18UT 2 4 2 18-21UT 2 4 2 21-00UT 3 5 (G1) 3
Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are possible on 01 Feb due to CH HSS activity. Active conditions are expected to follow on 02 Feb as CH impact begins to wane.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 31-Feb 02 2021
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 31-Feb 02 2021
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2021 Jan 31 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA031 UGEOA 20401 10131 0330/ 9930/ 10311 20311 30311 99999 UGEOE 20401 10131 0330/ 30/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 10131 0330/ 30/// 10000 20740 3002/ 4///0 50000 61908 74604 80001 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 10131 0330/ 30/24 31100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2021 Jan 31 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 031 Issued at 0245Z on 31 Jan 2021 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Jan A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: Field conditions were at quiet levels. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 074 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 002/002 X-ray Background A1.9 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 6.6e+04 GT 10 MeV 4.6e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 1.70e+08 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 0 1 0 1 1 2 1 1 Planetary 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 F. Comments: None
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2021 Jan 31 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 31 Issued at 0030Z on 31 Jan 2021 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Jan I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Jan Nmbr Location Lo 2800 N18W61 306 II. Regions Due to Return 31 Jan to 02 Feb Nmbr Lat Lo None
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Jan 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 31-Feb 02 2021 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 31-Feb 02 2021
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 00-03UT 1 2 4 03-06UT 1 2 3 06-09UT 1 2 3 09-12UT 2 2 3 12-15UT 2 3 3 15-18UT 2 4 2 18-21UT 2 4 2 21-00UT 3 5 (G1) 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected until 01 Feb when possible CH HSS activity could produce G1 (Minor) storms. No other significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 31-Feb 02 2021
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 31-Feb 02 2021
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Jan 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 31 Jan and 01-02 Feb.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 3,135 pfu at 30/1640 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 31 Jan and 01-02 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected background conditions.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at near background levels on 31 Jan. An enhanced solar wind environment is likely on 01-02 Feb as a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 31 Jan as ambient conditions prevail. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 01 Feb in response to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS influence. Active conditions are likely on 02 Feb as coronal hole activity persists.
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 373 km/s at 29/2203Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3135 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Jan), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (01 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Jan 074 Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 074/074/072 90 Day Mean 30 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 007/008-013/018-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/40/30 Minor Storm 05/25/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/15 Minor Storm 20/20/30 Major-severe storm 20/60/40
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