Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 28/0646Z from Region 2804 (N18W87). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (01 Mar) and expected to be very low on days two and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 391 km/s at 28/0526Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2733 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Mar), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (02 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 28 Feb 078 Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 078/074/074 90 Day Mean 28 Feb 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 010/012-015/018-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/40/25 Minor Storm 10/25/10 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/15 Minor Storm 30/25/30 Major-severe storm 40/60/40
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Feb 28 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was low. Region 2804 (N18W80, Dso/beta) produced a C2/sf at 27/1800 UTC and a C3/sf at 28/0645 UTC. Associated with the first C-flare was a slow-moving, narrow CME signature which does not appear to have an Earth-directed component.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for C-class flares on 28 Feb and 01 Mar. Very low levels are expected for 02 Mar in the absence of spot groups after the departure of 2804 around the West limb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels on 28 Feb and decrease to moderate levels or lower initially with the onset of CH HSS activity on 01-02 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, were at nominal levels. Total magnetic field strength was below 5nT. Solar wind speeds were between 358 and 400 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind conditions are expected to be at near nominal levels on 28 Feb. The onset of influence from a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to cause enhancements in total magnetic field strength and solar wind speeds on 01-02 Mar.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet, with a chance for isolated unsettled periods, due to prolonged southward Bz on 28 Feb. CH HSS activity is anticipated for 01-02 Mar and expected to produce unsettled to active conditions on 01 Mar. 02 March is expected to be mostly unsettled to active with a minor storm (G1) likely late in the UT day.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Feb 28 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 28-Mar 02 2021 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 28-Mar 02 2021
Feb 28 Mar 01 Mar 02 00-03UT 1 3 3 03-06UT 2 3 3 06-09UT 1 2 3 09-12UT 0 2 3 12-15UT 1 2 3 15-18UT 1 3 3 18-21UT 2 3 4 21-00UT 2 4 5 (G1)
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 02 March due to the effects of a coronal hole/high speed stream.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 28-Mar 02 2021
Feb 28 Mar 01 Mar 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 28-Mar 02 2021
Feb 28 Mar 01 Mar 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2021 Feb 28 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA059 UGEOA 20401 10228 0330/ 9930/ 10281 20282 30281 99999 UGEOE 20401 10228 0330/ 27/02 17512 1800/ 18052 12700 02603 0//// 46323 92804 18072 1807/ 18072 9//99 01202 0//// ///// 9//// 99999 UGEOI 20401 10228 0330/ 27/// 10014 20790 3004/ 4///0 50000 65608 74504 80001 90190 99999 UGEOR 20401 10228 0330/ 27/24 28101 12804 20000 30100 44212 50190 60004 47421 02000 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2021 Feb 28 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 059 Issued at 0245Z on 28 Feb 2021 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 27 Feb A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep 1751 1800 1805 2804 N23W63 C2.7 Sf 2600 1807 1807 1807 120 B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 079 SSN 014 Afr/Ap 003/004 X-ray Background A5.5 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 6.5e+04 GT 10 MeV 4.5e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 5.50e+07 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 0 1 3 1 2 2 1 1 Planetary 1 1 2 0 1 1 2 1 F. Comments: None.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Feb 28 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was low. Region 2804 (N21W74, Dso/beta) was fairly stable as it continued to rotate towards the West limb. At 27/1751 UTC, Region 2804 produced an impulsive C2.7/sf flare. Also associated with this event was a pair of 245 radio bursts. No CME related (Type II or IV) bursts were observed, as expected with the impulsive profile of the flare. However, a faint CME may be visible in SOHO LASCO C2 starting shortly after this flare occurred and departing the NW limb, from near 2804. Analysis is limited due to a helmet streamer or artifact visible in the same area on LASCO C2. Further determination for a CME and analysis will be conducted once more data becomes available. No new CMEs expected to impact Earth were observed during the period.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for C-class flares on 28 Feb and 01 Mar. Very low levels are expected for 02 Mar in the absence of spot groups after the departure of 2804 off the West limb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels on 28 Feb and decrease to moderate levels or lower initially with the onset of CH HSS activity on 01-02 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected ambient background and quiet levels. Total magnetic field strength was relatively weak, less than 5 nT throughout the reporting period. Solar wind speeds steadily declined from a peak of ~450 km/s to ~360 km/s at the period’s end. Phi angle was variable, but predominately positive.
.Forecast… Solar wind conditions are expected to be at near nominal levels on 28 Feb. Influence from a CH HSS is expected to enhance solar wind parameters on 01-02 Mar.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet, with a chance for isolated unsettled periods, due to prolonged southward Bz on 28 Feb. CH HSS activity is anticipated for 01-02 Mar and expected to produce unsettled to active conditions on 01 Mar. 02 March is expected to be mostly unsettled to active with a minor storm (G1) likely late in the UT day.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Feb 28 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 28-Mar 02 2021 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 28-Mar 02 2021
Feb 28 Mar 01 Mar 02 00-03UT 2 3 3 03-06UT 1 3 3 06-09UT 1 2 3 09-12UT 1 2 3 12-15UT 1 2 3 15-18UT 1 3 3 18-21UT 2 3 4 21-00UT 2 4 5 (G1)
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 02 March due to the effects of a coronal hole/high speed stream.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 28-Mar 02 2021
Feb 28 Mar 01 Mar 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 28-Mar 02 2021
Feb 28 Mar 01 Mar 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2021 Feb 28 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 59 Issued at 0030Z on 28 Feb 2021 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 27 Feb I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 27/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2804 N21W74 309 0190 Dso 08 04 Beta IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 27/2400Z Feb Nmbr Location Lo 2803 N20W45 281 2805 S22W69 305 II. Regions Due to Return 28 Feb to 02 Mar Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 27/1800Z from Region 2804 (N21W74). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (28 Feb, 01 Mar) and expected to be very low on day three (02 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 457 km/s at 26/2206Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1628 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (01 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (02 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Feb 079 Predicted 28 Feb-02 Mar 080/078/074 90 Day Mean 27 Feb 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 006/005-010/012-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/25/40 Minor Storm 01/10/25 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 20/30/25 Major-severe storm 10/40/60
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Feb 27 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2804 (N21W67, Dso/beta) was relatively quiet and stable as it continued to rotate towards the W limb.
Coronal dimming associated with a B9/sf enhancement was observed in SDO/AIA193 imagery at approximately 26/0715 UTC, near decayed Region 2805. Coronagraph imagery analysis conducted after LASCO became available determined that the narrow CME associated with this event is not expected to propagate along the Sun-Earth line. No new CMEs expected to impact Earth were observed during the period.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for C-class flares on 27-28 Feb and 01 Mar.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels on 27-28 Feb and decrease to moderate levels or lower initially with the onset of CH HSS activity on 01 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected interaction with the current sheet. Total magnetic field strength was relatively weak, mostly between 1-3 nT through the reporting period. Solar wind speeds steadily declined from a peak of ~460 km/s to ~390 km/s at the period’s end. Phi angle was variable.
.Forecast… Solar wind conditions are expected to be at near nominal levels on 27-28 Feb. Influence from a CH HSS is expected to enhance solar wind parameters on 01 Mar.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet, with a chance for isolated unsettled periods, due to prolonged southward Bz on 27-28 Feb. CH HSS activity is anticipated for 01 Mar and expected to produce unsettled to active conditions.
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