Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 90 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 410 km/s at 30/2110Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 31/0755Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/0611Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 737 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Mar 074 Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 075/070/070 90 Day Mean 31 Mar 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 004/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 006/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor Storm 15/20/25 Major-severe storm 05/10/20
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Mar 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. There were no sunspots although Region 2811 (N20W62), which is an area of enhanced plage, produced a B7 flare at 30/2005 UTC. Region 2812 (N23W36), also an area of plage, remained inactive.
An apparent filament eruption occurred near N50W02 at approximately 30/1440 UTC. A very faint CME can be teased out in coronagraph imagery, but it is not thought to be Earth-directed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 31 Mar-02 Apr.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 31 Mar-02 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind speeds increased from around 310 km/s to just over 400 km/s, suggesting the arrival of what was anticipated to be a weak, negative polarity CH HSS. Total field peaked at 8 nT and the Bz component reached a maximum southward deviation of -7 nT. Phi was negative.
.Forecast… Minor enhancements are expected to continue through the rest of the day (31 Mar) with weak CH HSS influences. A return to background conditions is expected for 01-02 Apr.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was briefly unsettled with the arrival of a weak, negative polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast… Isolated unsettled levels are likely throughout the day (31 Mar), with a chance for isolated active periods, due to CH HSS activity. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail 01-02 Apr.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Mar 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 31-Apr 02 2021 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 31-Apr 02 2021
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02 00-03UT 3 2 2 03-06UT 3 1 2 06-09UT 2 1 2 09-12UT 3 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 1 21-00UT 2 2 1
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 31-Apr 02 2021
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 31-Apr 02 2021
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2021 Mar 31 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA090 UGEOA 20401 10331 0330/ 9930/ 10311 20311 30311 99999 UGEOE 20401 10331 0330/ 30/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 10331 0330/ 30/// 10000 20800 3003/ 4///0 50000 62208 74604 80002 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 10331 0330/ 30/24 31100 99999

Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2021 Mar 31 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 090 Issued at 0245Z on 31 Mar 2021 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Mar A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 080 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 004/002 X-ray Background A2.2 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 1.0e+05 GT 10 MeV 4.6e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 1.90e+07 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 0 1 1 0 0 1 2 2 Planetary 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 F. Comments: None.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Mar 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Despite a spotless disk, a B7 flare was observed at 30/2005 UTC originating from near Region 2811 (N20W62), now an area of enhanced plage. Region 2812 (N23W36) also decayed to a plage area during the period.
An apparent filament eruption occurred near N50W02 at approximately 30/1440 UTC. Analysis will be accomplished as soon as coronagraph imagery becomes available.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 31 Mar-02 Apr.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 31 Mar-02 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected background conditions for most of the period. Just after 30/1630 UTC, a weak disruption was observed, causing minor enhancements in all parameters of the solar wind environment. Total field strength remained at or below 6 nT, Bz was between +/- 4 nT, and solar wind speeds reached 410 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative.
.Forecast… A slight enhancement in the solar wind environment is anticipated for the early periods of 31 Mar due to possible weak CH HSS influences. A return to background conditions is expected for 01-02 Apr.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet under a mostly nominal solar wind regime.
.Forecast… Unsettled levels are likely, with a chance for isolated active periods, early on 31 Mar due to possible CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail 01-02 Apr.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Mar 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 31-Apr 02 2021 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 31-Apr 02 2021
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 3 1 2 06-09UT 2 1 2 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 1 21-00UT 2 2 1
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 31-Apr 02 2021
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 31-Apr 02 2021
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2021 Mar 31 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 90 Issued at 0030Z on 31 Mar 2021 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Mar I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Mar Nmbr Location Lo 2811 N20W62 250 2812 N23W36 224 II. Regions Due to Return 31 Mar to 02 Apr Nmbr Lat Lo None
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Mar, 01 Apr, 02 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 402 km/s at 30/2044Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/1642Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/1921Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 782 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Mar 080 Predicted 31 Mar-02 Apr 075/075/070 90 Day Mean 30 Mar 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 008/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 25/15/15 Major-severe storm 25/05/05
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Mar 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2812 (N23W30, Bxo/beta) underwent a brief period of growth, followed by decay. The region was quiet and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 30 Mar-01 Apr.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 30 Mar-01 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected background conditions. Wind speeds averaged mainly 325-350 km/s. Total IMF strength was primarily 3-5 nT and the Bz component underwent weak deviations. The phi angle was negative.
.Forecast… A slight enhancement in the solar wind environment is anticipated for 30-31 Mar due to minor CH HSS influences. A return to background conditions is expected for 01 Apr.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field will likely reach unsettled levels, with a chance for isolated active periods, 30-31 Mar due to possible CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail 01 Apr.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.