Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (01 May, 02 May) and expected to be very low on day three (03 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 358 km/s at 30/1424Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/0344Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 30/1522Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1836 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 May) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (02 May, 03 May).
III. Event probabilities 01 May-03 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Apr 073 Predicted 01 May-03 May 072/070/070 90 Day Mean 30 Apr 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 006/008-014/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/35/25 Minor Storm 10/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/15 Minor Storm 25/25/30 Major-severe storm 35/50/40
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Apr 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels. Slight decay was observed in Regions 2820 (S22W64, Bxo/beta) and 2821 (S21W82, Hsx/alpha). A CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery off the east limb beginning at 29/2001 UTC. This was the result of a filament eruption beginning at 29/1613 UTC centered near N55E65. The CME is unlikely to be geoeffective based on its location; however, more analysis will be conducted as imagery becomes available.
.Forecast… Solar activity is anticipated to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares on 30 Apr – 02 May.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels on 30 Apr – 02 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were mostly at nominal levels until 29/1844 UTC when a weak shock was observed in solar wind data, possibly from a weak glancing blow from the 25 Apr CME. Total field increased from 5 nT to 9 nT while solar wind speed increased from 329 to 354 km/s. Wind speeds ended the period near 300 km/s. Phi angle switched from a negative to a positive sector at 29/1320 UTC.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly enhanced under CME influence on 30 Apr. Additionally, some material from the filament eruption that occurred on 26 Apr may pass close enough to Earth to elevate solar wind parameters late on 30 Apr into 01 May. Early on 02 May, a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to move into geoeffective position. Solar wind speeds in the 450-550 km/s range is likely.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 30 Apr – 01 May with a chance for active periods due to weak CME influences. Unsettled to active levels with a chance of G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected on 02 with the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Apr 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 30-May 02 2021 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 30-May 02 2021
Apr 30 May 01 May 02 00-03UT 1 3 3 03-06UT 2 2 4 06-09UT 1 2 4 09-12UT 1 1 3 12-15UT 2 1 2 15-18UT 2 2 1 18-21UT 3 3 1 21-00UT 3 3 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 30-May 02 2021
Apr 30 May 01 May 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 30-May 02 2021
Apr 30 May 01 May 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2021 Apr 30 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA120 UGEOA 20401 10430 0330/ 9930/ 10301 20301 30301 99999 UGEOE 20401 10430 0330/ 29/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 10430 0330/ 29/// 10037 20770 3006/ 4///0 50000 65608 74504 80003 90070 99999 UGEOR 20401 10430 0330/ 29/24 30103 12818 20000 30000 47201 50020 60001 35316 00000 12820 20000 30000 43112 50030 60005 35722 01000 12821 20000 30000 47201 50020 60001 37421 00000 99999

Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2021 Apr 30 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 120 Issued at 0245Z on 30 Apr 2021 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Apr A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 077 SSN 037 Afr/Ap 005/005 X-ray Background A5.6 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 5.4e+04 GT 10 MeV 4.5e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 4.60e+07 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 Planetary 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 F. Comments: None.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Help strengthen the security of your Google Account

[image: Google]

Do you still want va7mjl@gmail.com to be your recovery email?
iouya9gf@gmail.com

Google can use this email address to make sure it’s really you if you get locked out of your account or if we notice suspicious activity. Confirm your recovery email va7mjl@gmail.com and see other personalized security recommendations in the Security Checkup. Take action <//accounts.google.com/AccountChooser?Email=iouya9gf@gmail.com&continue=https://myaccount.google.com/security-checkup?utm_source%3Dgoogle%26utm_medium%3Demail%26utm_campaign%3Dsap%26aneid%3D-1138894757902047166%26sea%3D25%26rfn%3D1619747001239%26anexp%3Dnret-fa–saprfsm-const–sapef-a8–saphpraf-f1″>accounts.google.com/AccountChooser?Email=iouya9gf@gmail.com&amp;continue=https://myaccount.google.com/security-checkup?utm_source%3Dgoogle%26utm_medium%3Demail%26utm_campaign%3Dsap%26aneid%3D-113889475…> You can also go directly to: myaccount.google.com/security-checkup You received this email to let you know about important changes to your Google Account and services. © 2021 Google LLC, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, USA

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Apr 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 30-May 02 2021 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 30-May 02 2021
Apr 30 May 01 May 02 00-03UT 2 3 3 03-06UT 1 2 4 06-09UT 1 2 4 09-12UT 2 1 3 12-15UT 2 1 2 15-18UT 2 2 1 18-21UT 3 3 1 21-00UT 3 3 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 30-May 02 2021
Apr 30 May 01 May 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 30-May 02 2021
Apr 30 May 01 May 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Apr 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels. Slight decay was observed in Regions 2820 (S22W57, Cro/beta) and 2821 (S21W74, Hsx/alpha). A CME was observed off the east limb in SOHO/Lasco C2 imagery beginning at 29/2001 UTC. This was the result of a filament eruption beginning at 29/1613 UTC centered near N55E65. The CME is unlikely to be geoeffective based on its location, however more analysis will be conducted as imagery becomes available.
.Forecast… Solar activity is anticipated to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares on 30 Apr – 02 May.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels on 30 Apr – 02 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were mostly at nominal levels until 29/1844 UTC when a weak shock was observed in solar wind data, possibly from a weak glancing blow from the 25 Apr CME. Total field increased from 5 nT to 9 nT while solar wind speed increased from 329 to 354 km/s. Phi angle switched from a negative to a positive sector at 29/1320 UTC.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly enhanced under CME influence on 30 Apr. Additionally, some material from the filament eruption that occurred on 26 Apr may pass close enough to Earth to elevate solar wind parameters late on 30 Apr into 01 May. Early on 02 May, a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to move into geoeffective position. Solar wind speeds in the 450-550 km/s range is likely.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 30 Apr – 01 May with a chance for active periods due to weak CME influences. Unsettled to active levels with a chance of G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected on 02 with the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2021 Apr 30 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 120 Issued at 0030Z on 30 Apr 2021 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Apr I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2818 S16W53 205 0020 Hsx 01 01 Alpha 2820 S22W57 209 0030 Cro 10 05 Beta 2821 S21W74 226 0020 Hsx 01 01 Alpha IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Apr Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 30 Apr to 02 May Nmbr Lat Lo 2814 S22 023
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (30 Apr, 01 May) and expected to be very low on day three (02 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 363 km/s at 29/1910Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 29/1948Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/1246Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1076 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (30 Apr, 01 May) and unsettled levels on day three (02 May).
III. Event probabilities 30 Apr-02 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Apr 077 Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 077/075/072 90 Day Mean 29 Apr 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 007/008-006/008-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/25/35 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/30 Major-severe storm 30/40/45
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.