Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 30/1815Z from Region 2835 (S18W01). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul, 03 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 521 km/s at 30/2058Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 30/2043Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 30/1721Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 251 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Jun 094 Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 094/094/094 90 Day Mean 30 Jun 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 010/012-008/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/20/25 Minor Storm 10/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/30 Major-severe storm 45/25/40
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Jun 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 30-Jul 02 2021 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 30-Jul 02 2021
Jun 30 Jul 01 Jul 02 00-03UT 0 2 3 03-06UT 2 2 2 06-09UT 3 2 2 09-12UT 3 2 2 12-15UT 2 2 2 15-18UT 2 3 2 18-21UT 3 3 2 21-00UT 3 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 30-Jul 02 2021
Jun 30 Jul 01 Jul 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 30-Jul 02 2021
Jun 30 Jul 01 Jul 02 R1-R2 15% 15% 15% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: There is a slight chance of R1 (Minor) radio blackouts on Jun 30 – Jul 02 due to the magnetic complexity of Region 2835.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Jun 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Regions 2835 (S18E06,Eki/beta-delta), 2836 (S28W00, Cro/beta), and 2837 (N17E49, Hrx/alpha) were absent of significant flare activity. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is likely to be low, with a slight chance for M-class flaring on 30 Jun – 02 Jul, due to the magnetic complexity of Region 2835.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 30 Jun – 02 Jul and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… A weak transient feature was observed in solar wind data at approximately 30/0245 UTC. At this time, minor increases in temperature, density, and wind speed were observed. Wind speed peaked at 379 km/s. Total field rose to 10 nT while Bz dropped to a period low of -10 nT. Phi was predominately positive.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced throughout the forecast period (30 Jun – 02 Jul) due to combined coronal hole and CME effects.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled due to CME effects.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the forecast period (30 Jun – 02 Jul) due to CH HSS influences and possible weak effects from the 27 Jun CME.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2021 Jun 30 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA181 UGEOA 20401 10630 0330/ 9930/ 11301 20302 30301 99999 UGEOE 20401 10630 0330/ 29/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 10630 0330/ 29/// 10056 20930 3005/ 4///0 50000 61607 74504 80003 90410 99999 UGEOR 20401 10630 0330/ 29/24 30103 12835 20000 30100 45526 50370 60016 21318 03000 12836 20000 30000 43112 50020 60008 20728 01000 12837 20000 30000 47101 50020 60002 15617 01000 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2021 Jun 30 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 181 Issued at 0245Z on 30 Jun 2021 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Jun A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 093 SSN 056 Afr/Ap 005/005 X-ray Background B1.5 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 7.6e+04 GT 10 MeV 4.5e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 8.60e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 1 0 1 1 2 3 1 2 Planetary 1 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 F. Comments: None
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Jun 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 30-Jul 02 2021 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 30-Jul 02 2021
Jun 30 Jul 01 Jul 02 00-03UT 1 2 3 03-06UT 2 2 2 06-09UT 2 2 2 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 3 2 2 15-18UT 3 3 2 18-21UT 3 3 2 21-00UT 3 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 30-Jul 02 2021
Jun 30 Jul 01 Jul 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 30-Jul 02 2021
Jun 30 Jul 01 Jul 02 R1-R2 5% 5% 5% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2021 Jun 30 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 181 Issued at 0030Z on 30 Jun 2021 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Jun I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2835 S18E13 052 0370 Eki 11 16 Beta-Gamma-Delta 2836 S28E07 058 0020 Cro 07 08 Beta 2837 N17E56 009 0020 Hrx 01 02 Alpha IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Jun Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 30 Jun to 02 Jul Nmbr Lat Lo 2834 N20 295
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Jun 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region 2835 (S18E13, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) grew slightly and developed mixed polarity umbrae within the lead penumbra, which also increased in heliographic extent. The region produced numerous B-class enhancements – the largest was a B8 at 29/1242 UTC. Region 2836 (S28E07, Cro/beta) underwent some decay and was stable. Region 2837 (N17E56, Hrx/alpha) rotated further into view and produced a B6 enhancement at 29/1124 UTC. The region remained too foreshortened for a good magnetic analysis, but appeared to still be unipolar.
An approximately 4 degree long filament (centered near N11E10) disappeared at about 29/0506 UTC, as observed in NSO-GONG H/A imagery. This DSF was associated with a B6 enhancement at 29/0537 UTC from the same, plage-only AR. Additionally, a small area of coronal dimming and post activity coronal loops were noted in GOES-16 SUVI/195A imagery. An EIT wave was also observed across a portion of the disk. Analysis of STEREO-A and LASCO coronagraph imagery corroborated a CME, however, it was narrow, faint (in LASCO), and appeared to have primarily a west-directed trajectory. Initial model runs predict arrival at Earth on 03 July. However, confidence is low at this time and further analysis is on going.
.Forecast… Very low solar activity is expected to continue, with a chance for C-class flares 30 Jun – 02 Jul, primarily due to the slight instability of Region 2835.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 30 Jun – 02 Jul and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters indicated a slow regime and a slight disturbance in the IMF. Total IMF strength steadily increased and peaked at 6 nT at 29/1518 UTC. The Bz component underwent mostly weak deviations, but turned southward for a short period and peaked at -5 nT at 29/1518 UTC. Solar wind speed averaged ~330 km/s and the phi angle was predominantly positive until near 29/1300 UTC, when it became variable between sectors.
.Forecast… Solar wind conditions are anticipated to become disturbed and mildly enhanced on 30 Jun due to CH HSS influences from a short extension of the north polar CH HSS. Solar wind conditions may continue to be enhanced and disturbed on 1 Jul due to waning conditions of any CH HSS influences and also potential effects due to close proximity of the 27 Jun CME passing just ahead of Earth’s orbital path. Any enhancements or disturbances are anticipated to decrease on 02 Jul.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled 30 Jun – 02 Jul due to CH HSS influences and possible weak effects due to passing CME proximity on 1 Jul.
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul, 02 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 350 km/s at 29/1655Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/1518Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/1518Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 367 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul, 02 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Jun 093 Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 092/092/092 90 Day Mean 29 Jun 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 008/010-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 25/30/20
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Jun 29 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 29-Jul 01 2021 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 29-Jul 01 2021
Jun 29 Jun 30 Jul 01 00-03UT 1 2 2 03-06UT 0 2 2 06-09UT 1 2 2 09-12UT 1 1 2 12-15UT 2 2 2 15-18UT 1 3 3 18-21UT 2 3 3 21-00UT 1 3 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 29-Jul 01 2021
Jun 29 Jun 30 Jul 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 29-Jul 01 2021
Jun 29 Jun 30 Jul 01 R1-R2 5% 5% 5% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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