Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 608 km/s at 31/0841Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 31/1032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 31/1025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3504 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Sep, 02 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Aug 070 Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 31 Aug 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 021/029 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 013/015-011/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/30 Minor Storm 15/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 50/50/40
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