Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Feb 25 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2804 (N20W40, Dsi/beta) exhibited growth in its intermediate and trailer spots, and consolidation in the leader spots. This region continued to produce multiple low to mid-level B-class flares. Region 2805 (S22W34, Axx/alpha) continued to decay and remained inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for C-class flaring on 25-27 Feb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum of 22,370 pfu observed at 24/1740 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 25-27 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were indicative of persistent CME effects. Total field began the period slightly elevated to near 9 nT before slowly decreasing to end the period near 5 nT. The Bz component was mostly negative throughout the period, seeing a maximum southward deflection to -8 nT early. Solar wind speed ranged from 435-508 km/s, and the Phi angle was variable.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect persistent yet waning CME effects. Solar wind speed is expected to continue in the 450-550 km/s range before slowly returning to ambient conditions on 26-27 Feb.
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active due to persistent CME effects.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels through midday on 25 Feb as CME effects persist. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on 26-27 Feb.
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