NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 May 16 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 16-May 18 2021 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 16-May 18 2021
May 16 May 17 May 18 00-03UT 2 2 3 03-06UT 1 2 3 06-09UT 1 1 2 09-12UT 1 1 3 12-15UT 1 2 3 15-18UT 1 3 3 18-21UT 2 4 4 21-00UT 2 4 5 (G1)
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 18 May due to negative polarity CH HSS influence and CME effects.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 16-May 18 2021
May 16 May 17 May 18 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 16-May 18 2021
May 16 May 17 May 18 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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