NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 May 16 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 16-May 18 2021 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 16-May 18 2021
May 16 May 17 May 18 00-03UT 1 2 3 03-06UT 0 2 3 06-09UT 1 1 2 09-12UT 2 1 3 12-15UT 1 2 3 15-18UT 1 3 3 18-21UT 2 4 4 21-00UT 2 4 5 (G1)
Rationale: A CME that left the Sun on 13 May is likely to further enhance ongoing influence form a negative polarity CH HSS on 18 May. The resulting geomagnetic response is likely to reach active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 16-May 18 2021
May 16 May 17 May 18 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 16-May 18 2021
May 16 May 17 May 18 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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