Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun, 20 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 596 km/s at 16/2241Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4862 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Jun 075 Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 17 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 015/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 10/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 35/10/10
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