Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Aug 18 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low. Region 2718 (S07E10, Hrx/alpha) was stable and quiet. No CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 18-20 Aug.
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (18-20 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength peaked near 7 nT early. Solar wind speeds were mostly between 450-500 km/s with the exception brief increase to a peak of 578 km/s late in the period. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to slowly wane over 18 Aug and nominal conditions are expected on 19 Aug. An enhancement in total field strength and wind speeds from a negative polarity CH HSS is expected on day three (20 Aug).
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to influence from a positive polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 18 Aug as solar wind speeds wane. The return of an ambient solar wind regime is expected to produce quiet conditions on day two (19 Aug). On day three (20 Aug), a increase to unsettled to active conditions, with the chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels, is expected due to the anticipated onset of influence from a negative polarity CH HSS.
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