Auroral Power

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Jun 02 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 02-Jun 04 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 02-Jun 04 2020
Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 00-03UT 2 1 2 03-06UT 3 1 1 06-09UT 2 2 1 09-12UT 1 2 1 12-15UT 4 2 2 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 2 1 1 21-00UT 3 1 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 02-Jun 04 2020
Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 02-Jun 04 2020
Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Jun 02 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2764 (N34, Lo=165) decayed to plage and was inactive. Minor B-level x-ray enhancements were observed with an area rounding the southeast limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Very low solar activity is expected to continue on 02-04 Jun. Although Region 2764 is now inactive, the area emerging onto the disk from the southeast has continued flare potential based on recent activity.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at primarily normal levels, with a few brief moderate periods 02-04 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters suggested a mildly-disturbed IMF. Total field peaked at 8 nT, and remained marginally elevated through the reporting period. Bz was southward in excess of -5 nT for 6 to 8 hours starting around 01/18 UTC. Solar wind speed generally decreased from about 380 km/s to 325 km/s by 02/12 UTC. The phi angle was predominantly negative, but underwent positive sector shifts around 01/17 UTC.
.Forecast… Solar wind conditions are anticipated to be nominal, but mild enhancements remain possible over the next three days (02-04 Jun).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled due to a mildly-enhanced solar wind environment.
.Forecast… Active conditions are expected on 02 June with sustained, elevated solar wind conditions. Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated on 03 and 04 Jun with isolated unsettled periods.
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:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Jun 02 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA154 UGEOA 20401 00602 0330/ 9930/ 10021 20021 30021 99999 UGEOE 20401 00602 0330/ 01/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 00602 0330/ 01/// 10011 20690 3006/ 4///0 50000 61808 74604 80101 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 00602 0330/ 01/24 02101 12764 20000 30000 41001 50000 60001 14735 01000 99999 PLAIN S.I.D.C. BRUSSELS INTERNATIONAL PROVISIONAL MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER RI FOR 2020 MAY IS 0.2 ( POINT TWO).
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:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Jun 02 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 154 Issued at 0245Z on 02 Jun 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 01 Jun A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 069 SSN 011 Afr/Ap 007/006 X-ray Background A1.7 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 5.8e+04 GT 10 MeV 4.6e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 1.50e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 Planetary 2 2 0 0 0 2 3 3 F. Comments: None
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Jun 02 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 02-Jun 04 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 02-Jun 04 2020
Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 00-03UT 4 1 2 03-06UT 4 1 1 06-09UT 3 2 1 09-12UT 2 2 1 12-15UT 2 2 2 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 3 1 1 21-00UT 3 1 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 02-Jun 04 2020
Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 02-Jun 04 2020
Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Jun 02 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2764 (N35E47, Axx/alpha) was assigned, but the magnetic field was weak with minimal shear and the region was inactive.
A weak B1 X-ray flux enhancement was observed along the SE limb at 01/1644 UTC. This activity appeared to be associated with an active region in the southern solar hemisphere, but beyond the limb as observed in STEREO-A EUVI imagery. This region appeared to be one day or more from rotating into Earth-view. The activity was related to a surge from the SE limb as observed in GOES-16 SUVI 304A imagery between about 01/1617-1757 UTC. Some material appeared to eject into space, while most was reabsorbed. SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph imagery first captured an E-limb CME at 01/1648 UTC. No evidence suggests an Earth-directed component to this E-limb event CME.
.Forecast… Very low solar activity is expected to continue 02-04 Jun, with a slight chance for C-class flares from magnetically weakening RGN 2764 on 02 Jun. The active region observed in STEREO-A EUVI a day or more beyond the SE limb cannot be analyzed further until solar instruments on the Earth-facing side can be utilized.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at primarily normal levels, with a few brief moderate periods 02-04 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were generally minimal and indicative of a slow regime, however, later in the reporting period, the IMF became slightly enhanced and disturbed. This appeared to be associated with SSBC shifts and proximity. Total IMF strength ranged primarily from 3 to 7 nT and the Bz component was weak until after 01/1700 UTC, when it shifted more southward directed. Solar wind speed decreased from 400 km/s to end of period speeds at ~375 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative, but underwent positive sector shifts beginning about 01/1700 UTC.
.Forecast… Solar wind conditions are anticipated to be nominal, with brief disturbed periods due to SSBC proximity possible 02-04 Jun as an overall slow solar wind regime is expected to continue.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet, with a late unsettled period.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet, with a chance for isolated unsettled to active periods 02 Jun in response to SSBC related disturbances. Quiet to unsettled conditions expected for 03-04 Jun.
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:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Jun 02 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 154 Issued at 0030Z on 02 Jun 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 01 Jun I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 01/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2764 N35E47 165 0000 Axx 00 01 Alpha IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 01/2400Z Jun Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 02 Jun to 04 Jun Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (02 Jun) and expected to be very low on days two and three (03 Jun, 04 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 435 km/s at 31/2236Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/2030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 176 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 Jun, 03 Jun, 04 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Jun 069 Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 070/072/072 90 Day Mean 01 Jun 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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The latest version of “The Weekly” Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data is now posted on-line and available at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/weekly-highlights-and-27-day-forecast
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Jun 01 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 01-Jun 03 2020 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 01-Jun 03 2020
Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 00-03UT 1 2 1 03-06UT 2 2 1 06-09UT 0 1 2 09-12UT 1 1 2 12-15UT 2 1 2 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 1 1 1 21-00UT 2 2 1
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 01-Jun 03 2020
Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 01-Jun 03 2020
Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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