Auroral Power

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 350 km/s at 18/1130Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/1127Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/0053Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 218 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Jan) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Jan 071 Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 18 Jan 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 010/010-008/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/25/25 Minor Storm 05/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 30/40/40
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Jan 18 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 18-Jan 20 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 18-Jan 20 2020
Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 00-03UT 1 2 2 03-06UT 2 3 2 06-09UT 1 3 2 09-12UT 1 3 2 12-15UT 1 2 2 15-18UT 1 2 3 18-21UT 2 2 3 21-00UT 2 2 4
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 18-Jan 20 2020
Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 18-Jan 20 2020
Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Jan 18 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low and the visible disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 18-20 Jan.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below alert threshold values and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 18-20 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed between 310-340 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-6 nT while the Bz component was between +5/-4 nT. Phi angle was mostly oriented in a positive (away) solar sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are likely to become weakly enhanced on 19 Jan due to the arrival of the 14 Jan CME, first observed in STEREO A COR2 imagery at 14/1124 UTC. This event was correlated to EUV darkening observed near S02W12 in GOES SUVI 195 imagery beginning at 14/0952 UTC. A further enhancement is expected on 20 Jan with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the remainder of 18 Jan. Early to midday on 19 Jan, unsettled conditions are likely due to the arrival of the 14 Jan CME. By 20 Jan, unsettled to active conditions are expected with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS.
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:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Jan 18 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA018 UGEOA 20401 00118 0330/ 9930/ 10181 20181 30181 99999 UGEOE 20401 00118 0330/ 17/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 00118 0330/ 17/// 10000 20700 3003/ 4///0 50000 61909 74604 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 00118 0330/ 17/24 18100 99999

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:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Jan 18 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 018 Issued at 0245Z on 18 Jan 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 17 Jan A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: Quiet D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 070 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 002/002 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Jan 18 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 18-Jan 20 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 18-Jan 20 2020
Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 1 3 2 06-09UT 1 3 2 09-12UT 1 3 2 12-15UT 1 2 2 15-18UT 1 2 3 18-21UT 2 2 3 21-00UT 2 2 4
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 18-Jan 20 2020
Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 18-Jan 20 2020
Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Jan 18 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low and the visible disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 18-20 Jan.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below alert threshold values and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 18-20 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed between 302-343 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-6 nT while the Bz component was between +5/-4 nT. Phi angle was mostly oriented in a positive (away) solar sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are likely to become weakly enhanced on 19 Jan due to the arrival of the 14 Jan CME first observed in STEREO A COR2 imagery at 14/1124 UTC. This event was correlated to EUV darkening observed near S02W12 in GOES SUVI 195 imagery beginning at 14/0952 UTC. A further enhancement is expected on 20 Jan with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 18 Jan. Early to midday on 19 Jan, unsettled conditions are likely due to the arrival of the 14 Jan CME. By 20 Jan, unsettled to active conditions are expected with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS.
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:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Jan 18 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 18 Issued at 0030Z on 18 Jan 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 17 Jan I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 17/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 17/2400Z Jan Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 18 Jan to 20 Jan Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Jan 17 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 17-Jan 19 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 17-Jan 19 2020
Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 00-03UT 1 2 2 03-06UT 1 1 3 06-09UT 1 1 2 09-12UT 0 1 2 12-15UT 1 1 2 15-18UT 1 1 2 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 17-Jan 19 2020
Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 17-Jan 19 2020
Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Jan 17 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low and the visible disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Very low solar activity is expected to continue 17-19 Jan.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 17-19 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at near-background levels. Solar wind speeds decreased from near 390 km/s to ~ 325 km/s. Total field strength peaked at 7 nT, and while there were numerous periods of Bz deflecting southward, none of the periods exceeded -5 nT. Phi was predominantly positive.
.Forecast… A slow solar wind regime is anticipated to continue 17-19 Jan.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at mostly quiet levels on 17-19 Jan.
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