Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Oct 15 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Both regions, 2724 (S07E27, Axx/alpha) and 2725 (S11E44, Axx/alpha), remained relatively stable throughout the period and were quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a slight chance for C-class flaring, on 15-17 Oct.
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux began the period at normal background levels before increasing to moderate levels with a peak flux of 135 pfu observed at 14/2035 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 15 Oct, and high levels on 16-17 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS this period. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from initial values near 450 km/s to a peak of around 610 km/s, observed at 14/2323 UTC. Total field strength values averaged around 5 nT. Bz was mostly northward with a peak southward deflection of of -4 nT. Phi angle was predominately negative with brief periods of positive orientation.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through the beginning of 15 Oct under continued, but weakening CH HSS influence. The return of a nominal solar wind regime is expected for 16-17 Oct.
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet conditions.
.Forecast… Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 15 Oct as CH HSS influence wanes. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 16-17 Oct with the return of a nominal solar wind regime.
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