Auroral Power

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 377 km/s at 14/0613Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 114 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (16 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Nov 070 Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 14 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 006/005-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/30/15 Minor Storm 01/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/25 Major-severe storm 10/40/25
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Nov 14 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 14-Nov 16 2019 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 14-Nov 16 2019
Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 1 1 3 06-09UT 1 1 3 09-12UT 1 1 4 12-15UT 1 1 2 15-18UT 1 1 2 18-21UT 2 2 3 21-00UT 2 2 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 14-Nov 16 2019
Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 14-Nov 16 2019
Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Nov 14 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low and sunspots were no longer present on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Very low solar activity is expected to continue 14-16 Nov.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached moderate levels, but was otherwise normal. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal levels 14-16 Nov and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow regime. Total IMF strength was primarily less than 5 nT and the Bz component underwent only weak deviations. Solar wind speed ranged mainly from 325-350 km/s and the phi angle was predominantly negative, but did undergo a few brief deviations into a positive sector.
.Forecast… A slow solar wind regime is anticipated to continue 14-15 Nov. Minor enhancements are possible beginning 16 Nov due to influences of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet 14-15 Nov. Unsettled to active conditions are likely to be reached 16 Nov due to CH HSS effects.
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:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Nov 14 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA318 UGEOA 20401 91114 0330/ 9930/ 10141 20142 30141 99999 UGEOE 20401 91114 0330/ 13/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 91114 0330/ 13/// 10000 20710 3002/ 4///0 50000 67808 72204 80101 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 91114 0330/ 13/24 14100 99999

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:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Nov 14 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 318 Issued at 0245Z on 14 Nov 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 13 Nov A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 071 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 001/001 X-ray Background A7.7 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 1.1e+05 GT 10 MeV 2.2e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-14 satellite synchronous orbit W105 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 2.90e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-14 satellite synchronous orbit W105 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 Planetary 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 F. Comments: None
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Nov 14 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 14-Nov 16 2019 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 14-Nov 16 2019
Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 1 1 3 06-09UT 1 1 3 09-12UT 1 1 4 12-15UT 1 1 2 15-18UT 1 1 2 18-21UT 2 2 3 21-00UT 2 2 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 14-Nov 16 2019
Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 14-Nov 16 2019
Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Nov 14 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low. Region 2752 (S23E56) was assigned, remained inactive, and decayed to an area of enhanced plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 14-16 Nov.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal levels 14-16 Nov, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected a background solar wind regime. Total field strength decreased from 8 nT to 4 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated between +/- 5 nT. Solar wind speed averaged near 350 km/s and the phi angle was primarily in a negative sector.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to remain at near background levels on 14-15 Nov. Possible weak enhancements are likely by 16 Nov as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet 14-15 Nov. Unsettled to active conditions are expected beginning on 16 Nov as the aforementioned CH HSS begins to influence the near-Earth environment.
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:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2019 Nov 14 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 318 Issued at 0030Z on 14 Nov 2019 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 13 Nov I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 13/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 13/2400Z Nov Nmbr Location Lo 2752 S23E56 286 II. Regions Due to Return 14 Nov to 16 Nov Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 367 km/s at 13/1424Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/2357Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/0044Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (14 Nov, 15 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (16 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Nov 071 Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 13 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 001/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 006/005-006/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/05/30 Minor Storm 01/01/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/20/30 Major-severe storm 10/10/40
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Nov 13 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low. New NOAA/SWPC Region 2752 (S24E60, Axx/alpha) was assigned; however, the region was inactive, magnetically weak, and already showed signs of decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Very low solar activity is expected to continue 13-15 Nov despite the emergence of new Region 2752. Analysis suggests weakening of Region 2752’s magnetic field will likely continue and lead to dissipation.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal levels 13-15 Nov and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were indicative of a return to an ambient, background state and slow solar wind regime. Total IMF strength decreased steadily from 10 nT to 5 nT; while the Bz component was predominantly northward directed. Solar wind speed ranged mainly from 300-350 km/s and the phi angle was primarily in a negative sector.
.Forecast… A slow solar wind environment is expected to continue 13-15 Nov due to a lack of influential features. Minor disturbances and enhancements are possible late on 15 Nov due to proximity of approaching CH HSS influences.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet 13-15 Nov.
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