Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Jan 23 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels. Both Regions 2797 (S18E09, Hax/alpha) 2798 (S16E18, Cro/beta) were stable and inactive. New Region 2799 (N21W30, Bxo/beta) quietly emerged on the disk this period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with a slight chance for C-class activity, on 23-25 Jan.
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels for 23-25 Jan.
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total magnetic field strength briefly peaked at 6 nT, but was generally at or below 5 nT. The Bz component varied between +/-4 nT while wind speed slowly increased from about 300 km/s to near 360 km/s by period’s end. Phi was variable throughout the period.
.Forecast… A nominal solar wind environment is expected for 23 Jan through late on 24 Jan. Enhancements in the field are expected late on the 24th through the 25th as an isolated, negative polarity CH moves into a geoeffective position.
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… Mostly quiet conditions are expected through late on 24 Jan. Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated for late 24 Jan through 25 Jan due to CH HSS influence.
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