Auroral Power

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Aug 18 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2718 (S07E04, Hrx/alpha) remained unchanged from the previous period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 18-20 Aug.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 18-20 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected the waning influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to slowly return to near-background levels over 18-19 Aug as positive polarity CH HSS influence wanes. An enhancement in total field strength and wind speeds from a negative polarity CH HSS is expected on 20 Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to the waning influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet and unsettled for the remainder of 18 Aug and generally quiet conditions are expected on 19 Aug as CH HSS influence wanes and subsides. Unsettled and active conditions are expected on 20 Aug due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Aug 18 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 18-Aug 20 2018 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 18-Aug 20 2018
Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20 00-03UT 2 1 4 03-06UT 3 2 4 06-09UT 4 1 4 09-12UT 3 1 4 12-15UT 2 1 3 15-18UT 2 1 3 18-21UT 2 2 3 21-00UT 2 2 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 18-Aug 20 2018
Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 18-Aug 20 2018
Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2018 Aug 18 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA230 UGEOA 20401 80818 0330/ 9930/ 10181 20181 30181 99999 UGEOE 20401 80818 0330/ 17/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 80818 0330/ 17/// 10011 20670 3013/ 4///0 50000 61308 71604 80001 90020 99999 UGEOR 20401 80818 0330/ 17/24 18101 12718 20000 30000 47101 50020 60001 21007 00000 99999

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:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2018 Aug 18 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 230 Issued at 0245Z on 18 Aug 2018 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 17 Aug A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 067 SSN 011 Afr/Ap 014/013 X-ray Background A1.3 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 3.1e+05 GT 10 MeV 1.6e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W135 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 1.20e+07 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W135 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 Planetary 4 4 2 2 1 1 3 3 F. Comments: None.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Aug 18 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low. Region 2718 (S07E10, Hrx/alpha) was stable and quiet. No CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 18-20 Aug.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (18-20 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength peaked near 7 nT early. Solar wind speeds were mostly between 450-500 km/s with the exception brief increase to a peak of 578 km/s late in the period. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to slowly wane over 18 Aug and nominal conditions are expected on 19 Aug. An enhancement in total field strength and wind speeds from a negative polarity CH HSS is expected on day three (20 Aug).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to influence from a positive polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 18 Aug as solar wind speeds wane. The return of an ambient solar wind regime is expected to produce quiet conditions on day two (19 Aug). On day three (20 Aug), a increase to unsettled to active conditions, with the chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels, is expected due to the anticipated onset of influence from a negative polarity CH HSS.
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:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2018 Aug 18 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 230 Issued at 0030Z on 18 Aug 2018 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 17 Aug I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 17/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2718 S07E10 191 0020 Hrx 01 01 Alpha IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 17/2400Z Aug Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 18 Aug to 20 Aug Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Aug 18 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 18-Aug 20 2018 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 18-Aug 20 2018
Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20 00-03UT 3 1 4 03-06UT 2 2 4 06-09UT 2 1 4 09-12UT 2 1 4 12-15UT 2 1 3 15-18UT 2 1 3 18-21UT 2 2 3 21-00UT 2 2 3
Rationale: Unsettled to active levels are expected on 20 Aug with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels due to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 18-Aug 20 2018
Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 18-Aug 20 2018
Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 578 km/s at 17/1933Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 16/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/0236Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 399 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Aug, 19 Aug) and unsettled to active levels on day three (20 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Aug 067 Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 17 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 011/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 007/008-006/005-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/35 Minor Storm 01/01/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/10 Minor Storm 25/20/25 Major-severe storm 20/10/50
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Aug 17 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 17-Aug 19 2018 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 17-Aug 19 2018
Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 19 00-03UT 3 2 1 03-06UT 4 2 2 06-09UT 3 2 1 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 1 2 21-00UT 2 1 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 17-Aug 19 2018
Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 19 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 17-Aug 19 2018
Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 19 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Aug 17 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2718(S03E17, Hrx/beta) continued to exhibit decay and was inactive during the period. No CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 17-19 Aug.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (17-19 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected the continued, but waning influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength peaked near 9 nT early in the period, solar wind speeds reached just over 500 km/s, and the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection of -7 nT. Phi was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to trend towards nominal levels as CH HSS effects diminish on 17 Aug. Ambient solar wind conditions are expected over 18-19 Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to influence from a positive polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled for the remainder of 17 Aug as CH HSS effects diminish. The return of an ambient solar wind regime is expected to produce quiet conditions on 18-19 Aug.
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