Auroral Power

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Mar 20 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 20-Mar 22 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 20-Mar 22 2019
Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar 22 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 3 1 1 06-09UT 3 1 1 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 3 1 2 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 1
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 20-Mar 22 2019
Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar 22 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 20-Mar 22 2019
Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar 22 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Mar 20 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2735 (N03E02, Cro/beta) appeared stable and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels for the next three days (20-22 Mar).
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,210 pfu at 19/2050 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on 20-21 Mar with CH HSS activity, and return to normal to moderate levels on 22 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters became enhanced midday with a SSBC and the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field strength increased to 6 nT, and Bz deviated southward to -5 nT on occasion. Solar wind speeds climbed from around 340 km/s to 400 km/s by the end of the period. Phi was predominately positive after the SSBC.
.Forecast… Elevated solar wind parameters are expected on 20 Mar as a result of CH HSS (negative polarity) activity. Near-background levels are expected by 21-22 Mar.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet despite marginally-elevated solar wind parameters.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels on 20 Mar as a result of CH HSS (positive polarity) activity. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 21-22 Mar with a return to background solar wind conditions.
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:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2019 Mar 20 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 79 Issued at 0030Z on 20 Mar 2019 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 19 Mar I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 19/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2735 N03E02 259 0020 Cro 05 05 Beta IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 19/2400Z Mar Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 20 Mar to 22 Mar Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar, 22 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 19/2029Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 19/1525Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/1401Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1367 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Mar 070 Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 19 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 009/010-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 30/15/15
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Mar 19 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 19-Mar 21 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 19-Mar 21 2019
Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21 00-03UT 1 2 2 03-06UT 1 3 1 06-09UT 1 3 1 09-12UT 2 2 1 12-15UT 1 2 1 15-18UT 2 3 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 3 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 19-Mar 21 2019
Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 19-Mar 21 2019
Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Mar 19 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2735 (N03E11, Cro/beta) showed minor growth in the leading spot group, and was responsible for weak B-level X-ray enhancements. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels for the next three days (19-21 Mar).
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 19-21 Mar and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters became slightly enhanced late in the period. Total field increased to 6 nT, and the Bz component reached a southward deflection of -5 nT. Density increased to a peak of 24.16 particles per cubic cm at approximately 0823 UTC, and wind speeds increased from around 330 km/s to 380 km/s. The phi angle was predominately negative, but ended the period in a positive solar sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind conditions are likely to continue to undergo enhancement over the course of 19 Mar due to a SSBC and subsequent CIR. On 20 Mar, enhanced conditions are anticipated to continue due to influence from a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Near-background levels are expected again by 21 Mar.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels, with a chance of isolated unsettled periods, on day one (19 Mar). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two (21 Mar) due to anticipated influence from a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet levels are expected again on 21 Mar with a return to background solar wind conditions.
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:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Mar 19 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA078 UGEOA 20401 90319 0330/ 9930/ 10191 20191 30191 99999 UGEOE 20401 90319 0330/ 18/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 90319 0330/ 18/// 10013 20700 3003/ 4///0 50000 61009 71704 80101 90010 99999 UGEOR 20401 90319 0330/ 18/24 19101 12735 20000 30200 42012 50010 60003 11703 00000 99999

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:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Mar 19 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 078 Issued at 0245Z on 19 Mar 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 18 Mar A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 070 SSN 013 Afr/Ap 002/002 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Mar 19 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 19-Mar 21 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 19-Mar 21 2019
Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 2 3 1 06-09UT 1 3 1 09-12UT 1 2 1 12-15UT 1 2 1 15-18UT 1 3 1 18-21UT 1 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 19-Mar 21 2019
Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 19-Mar 21 2019
Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Mar 19 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2735 (N03E17, Bxo/beta) showed minor growth and consolidation of its trailing spots, and was responsible for weak B-level X-ray enhancements. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels for the next three days (19-21 Mar).
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 19-21 Mar and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total magnetic field averaged around 5 nT. Bz was mostly positive or neutral. Solar wind speeds averaged around 350 km/s. Phi angle was highly variable between positive and negative orientations.
.Forecast… Solar wind conditions are likely to continue at background levels on 19 Mar. On 20 Mar, enhanced conditions are anticipated due to influence from a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Near-background levels are expected again by 21 Mar.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (19 Mar). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two (21 Mar) due to anticipated influence from a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet levels are expected again on 21 Mar with a return to background solar wind conditions.
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