Auroral Power

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2018 Oct 15 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA288 UGEOA 20401 81015 0330/ 9930/ 10151 21151 30151 99999 UGEOE 20401 81015 0330/ 14/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 81015 0330/ 14/// 10022 20720 3006/ 4///0 50000 61009 71604 80002 90020 99999 UGEOR 20401 81015 0330/ 14/24 15102 12724 20000 30000 41001 50010 60001 22707 00000 12725 20000 30000 41001 50010 60001 24411 00000 99999

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:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2018 Oct 15 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 288 Issued at 0245Z on 15 Oct 2018 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 14 Oct A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: Quiet D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 072 SSN 022 Afr/Ap 004/004 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

The latest version of “The Weekly” Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data is now posted on-line and available at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/weekly-highlights-and-27-day-forecast
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Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #18-42 2018 October 14 at 7:57 p.m. MDT (2018 October 15 0157 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For October 8-14
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms were observed on 10 Oct and 13 Oct due to coronal hole high-speed stream influence.
Outlook For October 15-21
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 19 Oct due to recurrent, coronal hole high-speed stream influence.
Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More information is available at SWPC’s Web site swpc.noaa.gov
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Oct 15 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 15-Oct 17 2018 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 15-Oct 17 2018
Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct 17 00-03UT 3 2 2 03-06UT 3 2 1 06-09UT 3 2 1 09-12UT 2 1 2 12-15UT 2 1 2 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 2 1 1 21-00UT 2 1 1
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 15-Oct 17 2018
Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct 17 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 15-Oct 17 2018
Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct 17 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Oct 15 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Both regions, 2724 (S07E27, Axx/alpha) and 2725 (S11E44, Axx/alpha), remained relatively stable throughout the period and were quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a slight chance for C-class flaring, on 15-17 Oct.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux began the period at normal background levels before increasing to moderate levels with a peak flux of 135 pfu observed at 14/2035 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 15 Oct, and high levels on 16-17 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS this period. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from initial values near 450 km/s to a peak of around 610 km/s, observed at 14/2323 UTC. Total field strength values averaged around 5 nT. Bz was mostly northward with a peak southward deflection of of -4 nT. Phi angle was predominately negative with brief periods of positive orientation.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through the beginning of 15 Oct under continued, but weakening CH HSS influence. The return of a nominal solar wind regime is expected for 16-17 Oct.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet conditions.
.Forecast… Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 15 Oct as CH HSS influence wanes. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 16-17 Oct with the return of a nominal solar wind regime.
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:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2018 Oct 15 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 288 Issued at 0030Z on 15 Oct 2018 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 14 Oct I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 14/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2724 S07E27 130 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha 2725 S11E44 113 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 14/2400Z Oct Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 15 Oct to 17 Oct Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 599 km/s at 14/2008Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 13/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/2101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 135 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Oct 072 Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 012/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 25/20/20
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Oct 15 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Both regions, 2724 (S07E27, Axx/alpha) and 2725 (S11E44, Axx/alpha) remained relatively stable throughout the period and were quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 15-17 Oct.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux began the period at normal background levels before increasing to moderate levels with a peak flux of 135 pfu observed at 14/2035 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 15 Oct, and high levels on 16-17 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS this period. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from initial values near 450 km/s to a peak of around 598 km/s, observed at 14/1829 UTC. Total field strength values averaged around 6 nT. Bz was mostly northward with a peak southward deflection of of -3 nT. Phi angle was predominately negative with brief periods of positive orientation.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through the beginning of 15 Oct under continued, but weakening CH HSS influence. The return of a nominal solar wind regime is expected for 16-17 Oct.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet conditions.
.Forecast… Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 15 Oct as CH HSS influence wanes. Quiet conditions are expected on 16-17 Oct with the return of a nominal solar wind regime.
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Oct 14 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 14-Oct 16 2018 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 14-Oct 16 2018
Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16 00-03UT 2 3 2 03-06UT 1 3 2 06-09UT 1 3 2 09-12UT 2 2 1 12-15UT 2 2 1 15-18UT 3 2 1 18-21UT 4 2 1 21-00UT 5 (G1) 2 1
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 14 Oct due to the influence of negative polarity coronal hole/high speed stream.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 14-Oct 16 2018
Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 14-Oct 16 2018
Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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