Auroral Power

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Aug 17 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 17-Aug 19 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 17-Aug 19 2019
Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 19 00-03UT 1 2 3 03-06UT 2 1 3 06-09UT 1 1 2 09-12UT 1 2 2 12-15UT 1 1 3 15-18UT 1 1 2 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 17-Aug 19 2019
Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 19 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 17-Aug 19 2019
Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 19 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Aug 17 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity continued at very low levels under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 17-19 Aug.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a maximum flux of 2,090 pfu at 16/1810 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 17-19 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed ranging from 350-420 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-5 nT while the Bz component was between +3/-5 nT. Phi angle was mostly oriented in a positive (away) solar sector.
.Forecast… Weak enhancements in the solar wind are possible on 19 Aug due to potential interaction with a negative polarity CH HSS. Near-background conditions are expected for 17-18 Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet over 17-19 Aug. Isolated periods of unsettled levels are possible on 19 Aug due to influence from a negative polarity coronal hole.
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:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Aug 17 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA229 UGEOA 20401 90817 0330/ 9930/ 10171 20171 30171 99999 UGEOE 20401 90817 0330/ 16/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 90817 0330/ 16/// 10000 20680 3005/ 4///0 50000 66108 72004 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 90817 0330/ 16/24 17100 99999

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:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Aug 17 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 229 Issued at 0245Z on 17 Aug 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 16 Aug A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: Field activity was at quiet levels. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 068 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 006/005 X-ray Background A6.0 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 6.3e+05 GT 10 MeV 2.0e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-14 satellite synchronous orbit W104 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 1.30e+08 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-14 satellite synchronous orbit W104 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 2 1 2 3 2 3 1 1 Planetary 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 1 F. Comments: None
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Aug 17 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 17-Aug 19 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 17-Aug 19 2019
Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 19 00-03UT 2 2 3 03-06UT 1 1 3 06-09UT 2 1 2 09-12UT 1 2 2 12-15UT 1 1 3 15-18UT 1 1 2 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 17-Aug 19 2019
Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 19 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 17-Aug 19 2019
Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 19 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Aug 17 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 17-19 Aug.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a maximum flux of 3,060 pfu at 16/0015 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels on 17-19 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected nominal conditions. Total magnetic field was below 5 nT for most of the day. Solar wind speeds were in gradual decline, decreasing from around 440 km/s to near 375 km/s by the period’s end. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.
.Forecast… Weak enhancements in the solar wind are possible on 19 Aug due to potential interaction with a negative polarity CH HSS. Near-background conditions are expected for 17-18 Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet over 17-19 Aug. Isolated periods of unsettled levels are possible on 19 Aug due to possible influence from a negative polarity coronal hole.
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:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2019 Aug 17 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 229 Issued at 0030Z on 17 Aug 2019 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 16 Aug I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 16/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 16/2400Z Aug Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 17 Aug to 19 Aug Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Aug, 18 Aug, 19 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 450 km/s at 16/0757Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/2245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4200 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (17 Aug, 18 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Aug 068 Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 16 Aug 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 005/005-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/10/15
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Aug 16 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 16-Aug 18 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 16-Aug 18 2019
Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug 18 00-03UT 1 2 2 03-06UT 1 1 2 06-09UT 2 2 2 09-12UT 3 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 3 1 2 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 3 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 16-Aug 18 2019
Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug 18 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 16-Aug 18 2019
Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug 18 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Aug 16 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low under a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 16-18 Aug.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a maximum flux of 5,230 pfu at 15/1915 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderateto high levels on 16-18 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected near background solar wind conditions. Wind speeds gradually decreased from near 440 km/s to an average of about 400 km/s. Total field ranged between 2-7 nT while the Bz component was +/- 4 nT. Phi angle was predominately in a positive solar sector, but began taking brief excursions into a negative orientation late in the period.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to become slightly enhanced on 16 Aug when an anticipated weak, negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. A return to background conditions are expected for 17-18 Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels, with an isolated unsettled period.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to isolated unsettled levels for 16 Aug due to weak, negative polarity CH HSS effects. A return to mostly quiet conditions is anticipated on 17-18 Aug.
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