Auroral Power

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Oct, 27 Oct, 28 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 593 km/s at 25/0131Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 25/0536Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/1556Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5668 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (26 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (27 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 Oct 074 Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 074/072/070 90 Day Mean 25 Oct 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 016/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 013/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 016/020-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/30/30 Minor Storm 25/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 65/45/40
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Oct 25 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 25-Oct 27 2020 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 25-Oct 27 2020
Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27 00-03UT 3 3 4 03-06UT 2 4 3 06-09UT 3 3 3 09-12UT 3 4 3 12-15UT 2 3 2 15-18UT 3 3 2 18-21UT 3 5 (G1) 3 21-00UT 3 3 3
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 26 Oct due to CH HSS activity.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 25-Oct 27 2020
Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 25-Oct 27 2020
Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Oct 25 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2776 (S14W77, Hsx/alpha) produced some B-class activity during the period, but was otherwise quiet and stable. A new area of possible spots formed near S20E05. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels over 25-27 Oct.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 25-27 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters remained enhanced this period due to the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. IMF total field strength values reached 7 nT while the Bz component briefly reached -5 nT. Solar wind speeds generally varied between 525-595 km/s. Phi was predominately oriented in a positive solar sector throughout the period.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to remained enhanced over 25-27 Oct due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influence.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled this period due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on 25-27 Oct, with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 26 Oct, due to the influence of positive polarity CH HSSs.
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:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Oct 25 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA299 UGEOA 20401 01025 0330/ 9930/ 10251 21251 30251 99999 UGEOE 20401 01025 0330/ 24/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 01025 0330/ 24/// 10011 20720 3017/ 4///0 50000 64009 74404 80001 90040 99999 UGEOR 20401 01025 0330/ 24/24 25101 12776 20000 30100 47201 50040 60001 37014 00000 99999

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:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Oct 25 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 299 Issued at 0245Z on 25 Oct 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 24 Oct A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 072 SSN 011 Afr/Ap 016/018 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Oct 25 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 25-Oct 27 2020 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 25-Oct 27 2020
Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27 00-03UT 3 3 4 03-06UT 4 4 3 06-09UT 3 5 (G1) 3 09-12UT 3 4 3 12-15UT 2 3 2 15-18UT 3 3 2 18-21UT 3 3 3 21-00UT 3 3 3
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 26 Oct due to CH HSS activity.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 25-Oct 27 2020
Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 25-Oct 27 2020
Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Oct 25 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2776 (S14W70, Hsx/alpha) was stable and quiet throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels over 25-27 Oct.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 25-27 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters remained enhanced this period due to the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. IMF total field strength values reached 11 nT and Bz briefly reached -10 nT early in the period. Wind speed values increased from around 500 km/s early in the period to end-of-period values around 560 km/s. Phi was mostly steady in a positive solar sector orientation throughout the period.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to remained enhanced over 25-27 Oct due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influence.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to active this period due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on 25-27 Oct, with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 26 Oct, due to the influence of positive polarity CH HSSs.
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:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Oct 25 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 299 Issued at 0030Z on 25 Oct 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 24 Oct I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 24/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2776 S14W70 166 0040 Hsx 01 01 Alpha IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 24/2400Z Oct Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 25 Oct to 27 Oct Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 591 km/s at 24/1555Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 24/0027Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 24/0107Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 916 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (25 Oct, 27 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (26 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Oct 072 Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 24 Oct 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 014/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 012/015-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/40/30 Minor Storm 20/25/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 30/25/30 Major-severe storm 50/65/45
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Oct 24 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 24-Oct 26 2020 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 24-Oct 26 2020
Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26 00-03UT 4 3 3 03-06UT 4 4 4 06-09UT 4 3 5 (G1) 09-12UT 3 3 4 12-15UT 3 2 3 15-18UT 3 3 3 18-21UT 3 3 3 21-00UT 3 3 3
Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected on 26 Oct due to CH HSS effects.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 24-Oct 26 2020
Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 24-Oct 26 2020
Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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