Auroral Power

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Sep 21 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 21-Sep 23 2018 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 21-Sep 23 2018
Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep 23 00-03UT 1 2 3 03-06UT 1 1 3 06-09UT 2 1 3 09-12UT 1 2 3 12-15UT 1 2 3 15-18UT 1 3 4 18-21UT 2 3 4 21-00UT 2 3 5 (G1)
Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storming is likely on day three (23 Sep) due to the anticipated influence of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 21-Sep 23 2018
Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep 23 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 21-Sep 23 2018
Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep 23 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Sep 21 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was spotless and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 21-23 Sep.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 8,310 pfu at 20/1930 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 21-23 Sep and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… The solar wind environment reflected ambient background conditions.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels on day one (21 Sep) and most of day two (22 Sep). Late on day two and continuing into day three (23 Sep) the solar wind environment is expected to become enhanced due to the arrival of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (21 Sep) and the majority of day two (22 Sep). Late on day two, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected due to influence from a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on day three (23 Sep) as persistent CH HSS effects linger.
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:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2018 Sep 21 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 264 Issued at 0030Z on 21 Sep 2018 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 20 Sep I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 20/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 20/2400Z Sep Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 21 Sep to 23 Sep Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Sep, 22 Sep, 23 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 20/0041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8688 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (21 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (22 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (23 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Sep 067 Predicted 21 Sep-23 Sep 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 20 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep 005/005-008/010-017/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/25/35 Minor Storm 01/10/25 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 20/30/30 Major-severe storm 20/40/55
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Sep 20 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels. There were no numbered regions and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 20-22 Sep.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 8,690 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 20-22 Sep and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… The total field was steady around 3 nT throughout the period with only minor deflections in Bz. Solar wind speeds have continued a declining trend this period and were last around 365 km/s. The phi angle was mostly negative.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels on 20-21 Sep. The solar wind environment is expected to become enhanced on 22 Sep with the arrival of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 20-21 Sep. Active levels are anticipated on 22 Sep as a result of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. There is also a chance for G1 (Minor) storming on 22 Sep.
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Sep 20 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 20-Sep 22 2018 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 20-Sep 22 2018
Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep 22 00-03UT 1 1 2 03-06UT 0 1 2 06-09UT 0 2 3 09-12UT 1 1 3 12-15UT 2 1 3 15-18UT 1 1 3 18-21UT 2 2 4 21-00UT 1 2 4
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 20-Sep 22 2018
Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep 22 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 20-Sep 22 2018
Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep 22 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2018 Sep 20 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA263 UGEOA 20401 80920 0330/ 9930/ 10201 20201 30201 99999 UGEOE 20401 80920 0330/ 19/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 80920 0330/ 19/// 10000 20680 3004/ 4///0 50000 61009 71704 80001 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 80920 0330/ 19/24 20100 99999

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:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2018 Sep 20 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 263 Issued at 0245Z on 20 Sep 2018 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 19 Sep A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled (based on Boulder indices). D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 068 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 004/??? X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Sep 20 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 20-Sep 22 2018 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 20-Sep 22 2018
Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep 22 00-03UT 2 1 2 03-06UT 1 1 2 06-09UT 1 2 3 09-12UT 1 1 3 12-15UT 2 1 3 15-18UT 1 1 3 18-21UT 2 2 4 21-00UT 1 2 4
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 20-Sep 22 2018
Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep 22 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 20-Sep 22 2018
Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep 22 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Sep 20 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels. There were no numbered regions and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 20-22 Sep.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 8,690 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 20-22 Sep and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… The total field was steady between 3 and 6 nT throughout the period with only minor deflections in Bz. Solar wind speeds have continued to decline this period and were last around 400 km/s. The phi angle was mostly negative.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels on 20-21 Sep. The solar wind environment is expected to become enhanced on 22 Sep with the arrival of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels with an isolated unsettled period.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 20-21 Sep. Active levels are anticipated on 22 Sep as a result of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. There is also a chance for G1 (Minor) storming on 22 Sep.
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