Auroral Power

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Dec 15 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA349 UGEOA 20401 91215 0330/ 9930/ 10151 20151 30151 99999 UGEOE 20401 91215 0330/ 14/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 91215 0330/ 14/// 10000 20700 3003/ 4///0 50000 63009 74504 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 91215 0330/ 14/24 15100 99999

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:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Dec 15 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 349 Issued at 0245Z on 15 Dec 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 14 Dec A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 070 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 002/001 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Dec 15 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 15-Dec 17 2019 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 15-Dec 17 2019
Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 1 1 1 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 15-Dec 17 2019
Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 15-Dec 17 2019
Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Dec 15 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 15-17 Dec.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 15-17 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected background conditions.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels throughout the forecast period.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 15-17 Dec.
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:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2019 Dec 15 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 349 Issued at 0030Z on 15 Dec 2019 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 14 Dec I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 14/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 14/2400Z Dec Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 15 Dec to 17 Dec Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec, 17 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 411 km/s at 14/2019Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 14/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 13/2353Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec, 17 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Dec 070 Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 14 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Dec 14 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 14-Dec 16 2019 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 14-Dec 16 2019
Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 00-03UT 1 2 2 03-06UT 0 1 1 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 0 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 1 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 14-Dec 16 2019
Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 14-Dec 16 2019
Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Dec 14 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 14-16 Dec.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 14-16 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected nominal conditions. Solar winds decreased from near 375 km/s to around 360 km/s by the period’s end. Total field was at or below 5 nT. Phi angle was variable.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels over 14-16 Dec.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet 14-16 Dec.
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:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Dec 14 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA348 UGEOA 20401 91214 0330/ 9930/ 10141 20141 30141 99999 UGEOE 20401 91214 0330/ 13/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 91214 0330/ 13/// 10000 20690 3004/ 4///0 50000 63009 74504 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 91214 0330/ 13/24 14100 99999

Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Dec 14 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 348 Issued at 0245Z on 14 Dec 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 13 Dec A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 069 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 003/002 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.