Auroral Power

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Jan 23 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2797 (S18E03, Hax/alpha) was stable and inactive. Region 2798 (S16E12, Axx/alpha) and new Region 2799 (N21W36, Axx/alpha) exhibited decay and were inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with a slight chance for C-class activity, on 23-25 Jan.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels for 23-25 Jan.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total magnetic field strength briefly peaked at 6 nT, but was generally at or below 5 nT. The Bz component varied between +/-4 nT while wind speed was between 300-350 km/s. Phi was mostly positive.
.Forecast… A nominal solar wind environment is expected for 23 Jan through late on 24 Jan. Enhancements in the field are expected late on the 24th through the 25th as an isolated, negative polarity CH moves into a geoeffective position.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… Mostly quiet conditions are expected through late on 24 Jan. Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated for late 24 Jan through 25 Jan due to CH HSS influence.
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Jan 23 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 23-Jan 25 2021 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 23-Jan 25 2021
Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan 25 00-03UT 1 2 3 03-06UT 0 1 2 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 2 1 18-21UT 1 2 2 21-00UT 1 3 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 23-Jan 25 2021
Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan 25 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 23-Jan 25 2021
Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan 25 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2021 Jan 23 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA023 UGEOA 20401 10123 0330/ 0000/ 10231 20232 30231 99999 UGEOE 20401 10123 0330/ 22/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 10123 0330/ 22/// 10039 20780 3004/ 4///0 50000 63708 74504 80103 90100 99999 UGEOR 20401 10123 0330/ 22/24 23103 12797 20000 30000 47301 50070 60002 20918 01000 12798 20000 30000 43112 50020 60005 21816 01000 12799 20000 30000 42012 50010 60002 43021 00000 99999

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:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2021 Jan 23 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 023 Issued at 0245Z on 23 Jan 2021 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 22 Jan A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 078 SSN 039 Afr/Ap 003/002 X-ray Background A3.7 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 1.6e+05 GT 10 MeV 4.5e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 1.30e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 0 0 1 0 1 2 1 1 Planetary 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 F. Comments: None
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:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2021 Jan 23 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 23 Issued at 0030Z on 23 Jan 2021 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 22 Jan I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 22/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2797 S18E09 341 0070 Hax 01 02 Alpha 2798 S16E18 332 0020 Cro 03 05 Beta 2799 N21W30 020 0010 Bxo 03 02 Beta IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 22/2400Z Jan Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 23 Jan to 25 Jan Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Jan 23 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels. Both Regions 2797 (S18E09, Hax/alpha) 2798 (S16E18, Cro/beta) were stable and inactive. New Region 2799 (N21W30, Bxo/beta) quietly emerged on the disk this period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with a slight chance for C-class activity, on 23-25 Jan.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels for 23-25 Jan.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total magnetic field strength briefly peaked at 6 nT, but was generally at or below 5 nT. The Bz component varied between +/-4 nT while wind speed slowly increased from about 300 km/s to near 360 km/s by period’s end. Phi was variable throughout the period.
.Forecast… A nominal solar wind environment is expected for 23 Jan through late on 24 Jan. Enhancements in the field are expected late on the 24th through the 25th as an isolated, negative polarity CH moves into a geoeffective position.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… Mostly quiet conditions are expected through late on 24 Jan. Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated for late 24 Jan through 25 Jan due to CH HSS influence.
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Jan 23 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 23-Jan 25 2021 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 23-Jan 25 2021
Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan 25 00-03UT 2 2 3 03-06UT 1 1 2 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 2 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 3 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 23-Jan 25 2021
Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan 25 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 23-Jan 25 2021
Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan 25 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 358 km/s at 22/1900Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/1627Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/1433Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 120 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Jan 078 Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 22 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 006/005-007/007-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/15/20 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 10/20/25
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Jan 22 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 22-Jan 24 2021 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 22-Jan 24 2021
Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan 24 00-03UT 1 2 2 03-06UT 0 1 2 06-09UT 0 1 2 09-12UT 0 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 1 21-00UT 2 2 1
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 22-Jan 24 2021
Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan 24 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 22-Jan 24 2021
Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan 24 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Jan 22 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2797 (S18E14, Hax/alpha) was stable and inactive. Region 2798 (S16E28, Axx/alpha) decayed and was also void of significant activity. A new spot group emerged in the NW portion on the disk. We await further observations from the SOON analysts before assigning a region number. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with a slight chance for C-class activity, on 22-24 Jan.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-2 nT. Wind speed averaged around 300 km/s. Phi was variable.
.Forecast… A nominal solar wind environment is expected for the next three days (22-24 Jan).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated through for 22-24 Jan.
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