Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Apr 13 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low. Region 2814 (S22E09, Bxo/beta) matured further, but remained in a magnetically simple bipolar alignment. The region was mildly unstable as it produced a few B-class enhancements, to include a B8/Sf at 12/2004 UTC. A prominence along the the SE limb observed in GOES-16 SUVI 304A imagery was active and eventually disappeared. Some material did escape the Sun in an eruptive nature, as a CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 12/0936 UTC. However, analysis indicated this event’s source was from beyond the SE limb and is not Earth-directed.
.Forecast… Very low solar activity is expected to continue, with a slight chance for C-class flares 13-15 Apr due to the growth of Region 2814.
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 13-15 Apr and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background.
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow regime. Total IMF strength varied from 2 to 7 nT and the Bz component had a maximum southward deflection of -4 nT. Solar wind speed ranged from mainly 335-375 km/s. The phi angle was negative until it shifted positive after 12/1250 UTC and became variable afterward.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is anticipated to continue as a slow regime on 13 Apr. Influences from a small, isolated positive polarity CH HSS may cause an enhancement and disturbance in the IMF, along with a modest increase in solar wind speed, on 14-15 Apr.
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 13 Apr, while quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 14-15 Apr due to minor CH HSS influences.
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