Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Apr 13 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low. Region 2814 (S22E09, Bxo/beta) matured further, but remained in a magnetically simple bipolar alignment. The region was mildly unstable as it produced a few B-class enhancements, to include a B8/Sf at 12/2004 UTC. A prominence along the the SE limb observed in GOES-16 SUVI 304A imagery was active and eventually disappeared. Some material did escape the Sun in an eruptive nature, as a CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 12/0936 UTC. However, analysis indicated this event’s source was from beyond the SE limb and is not Earth-directed.
.Forecast… Very low solar activity is expected to continue, with a slight chance for C-class flares 13-15 Apr due to the growth of Region 2814.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 13-15 Apr and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow regime. Total IMF strength varied from 2 to 7 nT and the Bz component had a maximum southward deflection of -4 nT. Solar wind speed ranged from mainly 335-375 km/s. The phi angle was negative until it shifted positive after 12/1250 UTC and became variable afterward.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is anticipated to continue as a slow regime on 13 Apr. Influences from a small, isolated positive polarity CH HSS may cause an enhancement and disturbance in the IMF, along with a modest increase in solar wind speed, on 14-15 Apr.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 13 Apr, while quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 14-15 Apr due to minor CH HSS influences.
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