Auroral Power

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2021 Aug 05 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA217 UGEOA 20401 10805 0330/ 9930/ 10051 20052 30052 99999 UGEOE 20401 10805 0330/ 04/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 10805 0330/ 04/// 10014 20710 3004/ 4///0 50000 65608 74404 80001 90010 99999 UGEOR 20401 10805 0330/ 04/24 05101 12850 20000 30000 42012 50010 60004 35531 01000 99999

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:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2021 Aug 05 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 217 Issued at 0245Z on 05 Aug 2021 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 04 Aug A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 071 SSN 014 Afr/Ap 005/005 X-ray Background A5.6 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 5.2e+04 GT 10 MeV 4.4e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 3.40e+07 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 2 2 2 2 2 3 1 1 Planetary 2 2 2 1 0 1 1 1 F. Comments: None
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:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2021 Aug 05 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 217 Issued at 0030Z on 05 Aug 2021 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 04 Aug I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 04/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2850 S31W55 003 0010 Bxo 05 04 Beta IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 04/2400Z Aug Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 05 Aug to 07 Aug Nmbr Lat Lo 2842 N25 211 2845 S16 211
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Aug 05 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 05-Aug 07 2021 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 05-Aug 07 2021
Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug 07 00-03UT 1 3 3 03-06UT 2 4 3 06-09UT 2 3 2 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 2 2 2 15-18UT 2 2 2 18-21UT 3 3 2 21-00UT 3 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 05-Aug 07 2021
Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug 07 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 05-Aug 07 2021
Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug 07 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Aug 05 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low with one sunspot group, Region 2850 (S31W55, Bxo/beta) present on the visible disk. The region decayed further, but produced a B5 X-ray enhancement at 04/0329 UTC. Another active region at approximately S11E53 developed pores later in the period, but as of this report they had not yet warranted spot status. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Very low solar activity is expected 05-07 Aug, with a slight chance for C-class flares 05-06 Aug.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate, with a few brief increases to high levels – but these were intermittent and were not sustained to meet alert criteria. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate, with a chance for high levels 05-07 Aug; while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow regime and likely HCS proximity. Total IMF strength decreased from a peak of 6 nT down to mainly 2-4 nT. The Bz component underwent only weak deviations. Solar wind speed was primarily 325-350 km/s and the phi angle varied between sectors.
.Forecast… The approach of a CIR ahead of an isolated, positive polarity CH HSS will likely lead to a mild enhancement and disturbance in the IMF on 05 Aug. CIR arrival and CH HSS onset are likely on 06 Aug, further disturbing and enhancing the solar wind field. Conditions will likely begin weakening on 07 Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 05 Aug in response to mild solar wind enhancements. Additional enhancements due to CIR arrival and CH HSS effects will likely lead to unsettled to active periods on 06 Aug. Waning CH HSS influences on 07 Aug are expected to decrease responses to the quiet to unsettled levels.
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (05 Aug, 06 Aug) and expected to be very low on day three (07 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 442 km/s at 03/2322Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 03/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 03/2114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1132 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (05 Aug, 07 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day two (06 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Aug 071 Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 072/072/070 90 Day Mean 04 Aug 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 013/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 007/008-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/30/20 Minor Storm 05/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 25/40/25
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Aug 04 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low with Region 2850 (S32W48, Cso/beta) as the only sunspots present on the visible disk. The region was largely inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Very low solar activity is expected to continue, with a slight chance of C-class flares 04-06 Aug.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.
.Forecast… Normal to moderate levels of the greater than 2 MeV electron flux are expected to continue 04-06 Aug, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were ambient quiet background. Total IMF strength decreased throughout the period and ended at less than 5 nT. Solar wind speed decreased slightly from near 350 km/s to end the period near 300 km/s. The phi angle varied, but was mostly directed away from the Sun in a positive sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind conditions are anticipated to be reflective of more ambient, background-like conditions on 04 Aug. On 05 Aug, a CIR ahead of an isolated, positive polarity CH HSS, is possible. CH HSS onset are likely to cause additional enhancements, and increases in solar wind speed on 06 Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active early in response to the enhanced and disturbed IMF. Geomagnetic responses were primarily quiet after 03/1200 UTC.
.Forecast… Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 04 Aug. Increasing responses to unsettled conditions on 05 Aug and unsettled to active levels on 06 Aug are likely due to CIR and CH HSS effects.
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Aug 04 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 04-Aug 06 2021 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 04-Aug 06 2021
Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06 00-03UT 2 1 3 03-06UT 1 2 4 06-09UT 2 2 3 09-12UT 1 2 2 12-15UT 1 2 2 15-18UT 1 3 2 18-21UT 1 3 3 21-00UT 1 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 04-Aug 06 2021
Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 04-Aug 06 2021
Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2021 Aug 04 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA216 UGEOA 20401 10804 0330/ 9930/ 10041 20042 30041 99999 UGEOE 20401 10804 0330/ 03/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 10804 0330/ 03/// 10015 20760 3010/ 4///0 50000 66108 74304 80001 90040 99999 UGEOR 20401 10804 0330/ 03/24 04101 12850 20000 30000 43212 50040 60005 34232 01000 99999

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:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2021 Aug 04 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 216 Issued at 0030Z on 04 Aug 2021 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 03 Aug I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 03/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2850 S32W42 005 0040 Cso 06 05 Beta IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 03/2400Z Aug Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 04 Aug to 06 Aug Nmbr Lat Lo 2842 N25 211 2845 S16 211
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