Auroral Power

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Apr 13 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 13-Apr 15 2021 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 13-Apr 15 2021
Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15 00-03UT 0 2 3 03-06UT 2 2 2 06-09UT 1 2 2 09-12UT 2 1 2 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 2 1 18-21UT 2 3 2 21-00UT 2 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 13-Apr 15 2021
Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 13-Apr 15 2021
Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Apr 13 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2814 (S22E03, Cao/beta) was responsible for multiple B-class flares, the largest of which was a B8/Sf flare at 12/2004 UTC. Region 2814 continued to show slight growth and development over the period but maintains a simple beta magnetic configuration.
Other activity included two prominent eruptions. The first was centered near S38 on the SW limb beginning at 12/2327 UTC while the second was centered at S20 on the SE limb beginning at 13/0527 UTC. There was no evident CME signature in the SOHO/LASCO coronagraph on the prominence eruption off the SW limb. We are currently waiting on further coronagraph imagery for the SE limb, however any potential CMEs are not likely to have an Earth-directed component based on their location.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares from Region 2814.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 13-15 Apr and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed ranging from 342-387 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-5 nT while the Bz component was between +3/-4 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative with deviations into a positive sector between 12/1250-1905 UTC.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at or near nominal levels on 13-15 Apr. Influences from a small, isolated positive polarity CH HSS may cause mild disturbances on 14-15 Apr.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 13-15 Apr with possible isolated unsettled conditions on 14-15 Apr due to minor CH HSS influences.
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:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2021 Apr 13 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA103 UGEOA 20401 10413 0330/ 9930/ 10131 20132 30131 99999 UGEOE 20401 10413 0330/ 12/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 10413 0330/ 12/// 10016 20830 3005/ 4///0 50000 62708 74304 80101 90010 99999 UGEOR 20401 10413 0330/ 12/24 13101 12814 20000 30200 42012 50010 60006 20922 01000 99999

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:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2021 Apr 13 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 103 Issued at 0245Z on 13 Apr 2021 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 12 Apr A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 083 SSN 016 Afr/Ap 004/004 X-ray Background A2.7 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 7.3e+04 GT 10 MeV 4.3e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 1.30e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 1 0 2 3 1 3 1 1 Planetary 1 0 1 2 1 2 1 2 F. Comments: None
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Apr 13 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 13-Apr 15 2021 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 13-Apr 15 2021
Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15 00-03UT 2 2 3 03-06UT 1 2 2 06-09UT 1 2 2 09-12UT 1 1 2 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 2 1 18-21UT 2 3 2 21-00UT 2 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 13-Apr 15 2021
Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 13-Apr 15 2021
Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Apr 13 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low. Region 2814 (S22E09, Bxo/beta) matured further, but remained in a magnetically simple bipolar alignment. The region was mildly unstable as it produced a few B-class enhancements, to include a B8/Sf at 12/2004 UTC. A prominence along the the SE limb observed in GOES-16 SUVI 304A imagery was active and eventually disappeared. Some material did escape the Sun in an eruptive nature, as a CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 12/0936 UTC. However, analysis indicated this event’s source was from beyond the SE limb and is not Earth-directed.
.Forecast… Very low solar activity is expected to continue, with a slight chance for C-class flares 13-15 Apr due to the growth of Region 2814.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 13-15 Apr and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow regime. Total IMF strength varied from 2 to 7 nT and the Bz component had a maximum southward deflection of -4 nT. Solar wind speed ranged from mainly 335-375 km/s. The phi angle was negative until it shifted positive after 12/1250 UTC and became variable afterward.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is anticipated to continue as a slow regime on 13 Apr. Influences from a small, isolated positive polarity CH HSS may cause an enhancement and disturbance in the IMF, along with a modest increase in solar wind speed, on 14-15 Apr.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 13 Apr, while quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 14-15 Apr due to minor CH HSS influences.
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:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2021 Apr 13 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 103 Issued at 0030Z on 13 Apr 2021 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 12 Apr I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 12/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2814 S22E09 007 0010 Bxo 05 06 Beta IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 12/2400Z Apr Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 13 Apr to 15 Apr Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr, 15 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 391 km/s at 11/2234Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/0619Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/0545Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 376 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (14 Apr, 15 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Apr 083 Predicted 13 Apr-15 Apr 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 12 Apr 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 006/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 15/20/20
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Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Apr 12 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. New Region 2814 (S24E17, Bxo/beta) was numbered and was inactive. A CME was observed off the East limb associated with an eruptive prominence. Analysis determined the CME was not Earth-directed. No other CMEs of significance were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low over 12-14 Apr.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate over 12-14 Apr and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at background levels. Wind speeds averaged ~350 km/s. Total field strength values were between 1-7 nT, and Bz was between +4/-5 nT. The phi angle was negative.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to become slightly enhanced on 14 Apr due to positive polarity CH HSS influence.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 12-13 Apr. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 14 Apr due to positive polarity CH HSS influence.
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Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Apr 12 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 12-Apr 14 2021 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 12-Apr 14 2021
Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14 00-03UT 1 2 2 03-06UT 1 1 2 06-09UT 1 1 2 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 2 18-21UT 2 2 3 21-00UT 2 2 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 12-Apr 14 2021
Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 12-Apr 14 2021
Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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